arXiv:2609. 28506v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: TW3Cast is a time-series forecasting system that reaches position 3 of 130 entries on the GIFT-Eval benchmark by mean MASE rank, as of 2026-09-14.
arXiv:2607. 17765v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce WC2026-Agents, a benchmark and dataset for evaluating large language models (LLMs) as autonomous forecasting agents on real, future events.
The paper demonstrates that the outcome of a forecasting leaderboard is largely determined by the evaluator’s design choices rather than the models themselves. By fixing the data, horizon, and period, the authors varied three key evaluation decisions—unit of analysis, error pooling, and scoring metric—and showed that each can reverse or eliminate the apparent superiority of any forecasting method. The study also evaluates the practical impact of these choices on a deployed system, revealing that the selection rule captures a significant portion of the potential performance gain, and confirms the findings on an external public dataset.
arXiv:2609. 20193v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Retrieval plug-ins supply a deep forecaster with information its lookback window cannot carry.
arXiv:2607. 10972v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many evaluations of model outputs rely either on contracts checkable at evaluation time or on feedback that arrives within the operating loop.
arXiv:2608. 03416v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are now regularly asked to forecast real-world events, but comparisons are often difficult because models receive different information, use different tools, and are evaluated under different rules.
MetroLLM-Bench is a 955‑case benchmark designed to evaluate language models as the policy layer of transit kiosks across six real metro systems, covering routing, fare calculation, disruptions, accessibility, and adversarial input. The benchmark includes 14 deterministic scoring components (Tier 1) and 8 semantic‑quality components (Tier 2), with a 75/25 split for training‑data generation and held‑out evaluation. Twenty‑six models from six vendors were tested, and a 4B Qwen 3.5 student fine‑tuned via PEFT outperformed GPT‑5.6 on Tier 1 and matched GPT‑5.4 on the combined score, while larger models offered no further improvement.
arXiv:2504. 15610v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Fine-tuning a 7B language model for specialized advising is attractive in resource-constrained settings, but multi-epoch runs routinely exceed the wall-clock limits of the free-tier GPUs (Kaggle, Colab) such users rely on.
FM‑Bench is a new benchmark that tests large language model agents on long‑horizon decision making by having them run a football club for 20 in‑game years. The agent must manage a squad, trade players, negotiate contracts, invest in facilities and youth, set lineups, and respond to a board that can fire it, all using 26 tools and roughly 340–400 decision stops, with a deterministic engine producing a final score without human or LLM judges. The benchmark includes a solo track where each of 15 frontier models competes against a frozen scripted world, and an Arena track where the same models plus a scripted anchor share one 20‑year world, allowing the first head‑to‑head evaluation at this scale. whyItMatters":"FM‑Bench provides a rigorous, large‑scale test of sustained, cumulative decision‑making in language‑model agents, revealing that managerial strategy—not computational scale or vendor—drives performance over long horizons."
arXiv:2609.15982v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Skills extend an LLM agent beyond its parametric knowledge, and the gain they promise rests on picking the right one. Deployed harnesses route by pre...
arXiv:2609.23686v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Patch-based autoregressive time-series forecasting often ties input representation, learned transitions, and recursive execution to one patch length. W...
Many evaluations of model outputs rely either on contracts checkable at evaluation time or on feedback that arrives within the operating loop. We study the complementary setting in which ground truth is delayed, censored, or private, so deterministic code cannot check correctness at scoring time and must instead issue a code-owned provisional forecast.
arXiv:2607. 24573v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) increasingly support decisions about uncertain future events, yet evaluating their ability to forecast real-world outcomes remains difficult.