Many evaluations of model outputs rely either on contracts checkable at evaluation time or on feedback that arrives within the operating loop. We study the complementary setting in which ground truth is delayed, censored, or private, so deterministic code cannot check correctness at scoring time and must instead issue a code-owned provisional forecast.
arXiv:2608. 14903v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantitative forecasts of frontier artificial intelligence often connect dated targets to trends in benchmark scores, training compute, release time, or expert belief.
By Fabricio F Costa
arXiv:2606. 24996v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting leaderboards rank models by predictive quality, but their winners are often read as deployment-ready top-1 advice.
By Geumyoung Kim
arXiv:2607. 12986v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Plan evaluators can reward a strategic plan for becoming less explicit.
By Aleh Manchuliantsau
arXiv:2608. 12322v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Self-reflection is widely assumed to improve LLM reasoning, yet which component drives the gain remains poorly understood.
By Poli Nemkova, Haeshitha Indukuri
arXiv:2607. 25152v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-running autonomous agents plan, act, and judge their own completion without human intervention.
By Hyundoo Park, Byungho Choi
arXiv:2608. 10433v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Temporal reports are increasingly emitted alongside numerical forecasts and are often interpreted as statements about the computation producing those forecasts.
By Qipeng Qian, Yuntao Qian
arXiv:2608. 10433v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecast accuracy does not tell us which past inputs produced a prediction.
By Qipeng Qian, Yuntao Qian
arXiv:2607. 19453v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We audit whether candle-based machine-learning models can turn predictions of cryptocurrency extrema or short-horizon outcomes into positive Binance Spot paper policies after assumed costs.
By Ayoub Jadouli
arXiv:2607. 17765v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce WC2026-Agents, a benchmark and dataset for evaluating large language models (LLMs) as autonomous forecasting agents on real, future events.
By Jiacheng Ding, Cong Guo, Jason Xu
arXiv:2607. 23386v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We document a failure class in frontier large language models -- exception chain collapse -- observed in eligibility evaluation under nested conditional rules of the form "A is required UNLESS B applies, UNLESS C overrides B".
By Paul Simpson, John Kozak, Lisa Doake
arXiv:2608. 10145v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LeWorldModel trains a latent world model with a prediction loss and a single anti-collapse regulariser, and reports approximately 87% of goals reached on TwoRoom, its simplest diagnostic environment.
By Joyjeet Singh