Timer‑M1 is a pretrained multivariate time‑series foundation model that learns with primitives for zero‑shot forecasting. It uses a primitive‑based data synthesis and pretraining pipeline to generate series with shared temporal and relational patterns, assembling them into multivariate samples with distinct channel roles. The model employs gated two‑dimensional Transformer blocks that dynamically allocate cross‑variate attention, achieving top performance on several large‑scale forecasting benchmarks.
By Haoran Zhang, Haixuan Liu, Xingjian Su, Yong Liu, Zhi Chen, Yuxuan Wang, Jianmin Wang, Mingsheng Long
arXiv:2606. 10678v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Transformer-based models have emerged as leading paradigms in time-series forecasting in recent years, employing self-attention mechanisms to capture long-range dependencies.
By Amrijit Biswas, Mustafa Kamal, Robin Krambroeckers, M. M. Lutfe Elahi, Sifat Momen, Nabeel Mohammed, Shafin Rahman
arXiv:2605. 11287v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A persistent paradox in time-series forecasting is that structurally simple MLP and linear models often outperform high-capacity Transformers.
By Jevon Twitty, Vinh Pham, Nitiwith Rotchanarak, Viresh Pati, Yubin Kim, Shihao Yang, Jiecheng Lu
arXiv:2604. 01577v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study out of distribution generalization in streaming tasks where models are trained on short sequences but must operate over much longer, unknown horizons under bounded memory.
By Shota Takashiro, Masanori Koyama, Takeru Miyato, Yusuke Iwasawa, Yutaka Matsuo, Kohei Hayashi
arXiv:2606. 07291v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multivariate time-series forecasting requires models to reason over temporal dynamics, cross-variable dependencies, and historical input-output correspondences.
By Tao Chen, Yexu Zhou, Zhi Gong, Hengwei He, Hongda Li, Zhewei Chen, Dongjing Wang, Xin Zhang, Decheng Liu, Chunlei Peng, Zheng Chen, Wenyue Ding
arXiv:2505.09063v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Solving time-dependent parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) with high-fidelity solvers is expensive in multi-query settings. This motiv...
By Khalid Rafiq, Wenjing Liao, Aditya G. Nair
arXiv:2512. 21113v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Transformers are increasingly adopted for modeling and forecasting time-series, yet their internal mechanisms remain poorly understood from a dynamical systems perspective.
By Gregory Duth\'e, Nikolaos Evangelou, Wei Liu, Ioannis G. Kevrekidis, Eleni Chatzi
arXiv:2506. 05233v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Sequence modeling is currently dominated by causal transformer architectures that use softmax self-attention.
By Johannes von Oswald, Nino Scherrer, Seijin Kobayashi, Luca Versari, Songlin Yang, Sarthak Mittal, Maximilian Schlegel, Kaitlin Maile, Yanick Schimpf, Oliver Sieberling, Alexander Meulemans, Rif A. Saurous, Guillaume Lajoie, Charlotte Frenkel, Razvan Pascanu, Blaise Ag\"uera y Arcas, Jo\~ao Sacramento
arXiv:2603. 12451v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Context-aided forecasting (CAF) holds promise for integrating domain knowledge and forward-looking information, enabling AI systems to surpass traditional statistical methods.
By Vincent Zhihao Zheng, \'Etienne Marcotte, Arjun Ashok, Andrew Robert Williams, Lijun Sun, Alexandre Drouin, Valentina Zantedeschi
arXiv:2606. 01289v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Zero-shot time series forecasting aims to predict future values for previously unseen series, requiring models to generalize temporal dynamics beyond the training distribution.
By Yifan Wu, Junjie Wu, Kai Wu, Xiaoyu Zhang, Jian Lou
Aurora‑X is a billion‑parameter time‑series foundation model designed for extreme forecasting tasks. It employs a progressive curriculum that starts with channel‑independent pretraining, then adds cross‑variable dependencies, variable context and horizon lengths, and optional future covariates during mid‑training. A variable‑resolution post‑training stage allows adjustable temporal spans per token at inference, while a pattern‑guided mixture‑of‑experts expands capacity through sparse activation and expert specialization. An implicit quantile network head predicts arbitrary quantiles, enhancing probabilistic forecasting flexibility. Experiments on GIFT‑Eval, TIME, FEV‑Bench, TFB, and DAG‑Bench show state‑of‑the‑art performance against both pretrained TSFMs and task‑specific supervised models.
By Xingjian Wu, Chenjuan Guo, Xiangfei Qiu, Zhigang Hu, Hanyin Cheng, Peng Chen, Yang Shu, Jilin Hu, Bin Yang
CTRL is a new framework for time‑series forecasting that separates semantic reasoning from quantitative prediction. It uses a frozen backbone to produce base forecasts, while LLM agents act as controllers that analyze prediction errors by decomposing them into trend, seasonal, and irregular components. The agents generate compact control signals that a lightweight residual decoder uses to correct the forecasts, and the system can adapt at test time to distribution shifts with only a few LLM calls.
By Minkyoung Kim, Daeun Ji, Yohan Lee, Beomsoo Kim, Beakcheol Jang