The study investigates whether adding inference-time reasoning to large language models (LLMs) improves trading performance. Using a controlled experiment across DeepSeek, GPT, and Gemini models, the authors varied reasoning effort while keeping other variables constant and evaluated over a full year of U.S. equities under three input conditions. Results show that additional reasoning does not reliably increase net portfolio returns and can even lead to nonmonotonic performance and unstable outcomes.
By Jiayi Chen, Guiling Wang
arXiv:2606. 00143v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial markets are inherently non-stationary, exhibiting frequent regime shifts and structural changes that render traditional Portfolio Management (PM) approaches ineffective.
By Chaofan Pan, Lingfei Ren, Linbo Xiong, Yonghao Li, Wei Wei, Xin Yang
FinPILOT is a plugin inference‑time policy optimization framework that enhances pretrained reinforcement‑learning trading agents by leveraging a multi‑step price forecaster to generate imagined market trajectories. At each decision point, it optimizes the pretrained policy using the forecaster’s predicted price path before executing a trade, without altering the original training pipeline. Across five pretrained policies and multiple market settings, FinPILOT consistently improves total return and Sharpe ratio, with gains increasing as forecast accuracy improves.
By Eun Go, Rohan Deb, Arindam Banerjee
arXiv:2608.28399v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: In financial markets, a sequential policy that reacts systematically to price movements may become predictable to other market participants. This p...
By Yupeng Zhang, Liuyuan Jiang, Hongyi Huang, Bingheng Li, Lisha Chen
Alpha‑R1 introduces a reinforcement‑learning aligned large language model framework that performs context‑aware alpha screening by semantically gating candidate factors against a dynamic market state description. The model, trained with group relative policy optimization using realized portfolio returns as reward, selects a sparse subset of factors whose economic rationale matches current market conditions. In a 12‑month out‑of‑sample test, Alpha‑R1 achieved annualized returns of 47.87% on the S&P 500 and 40.57% on the CSI 300, with Sharpe ratios of 1.62 and 2.23, demonstrating the effectiveness of semantic factor reranking in non‑stationary markets.
By Zuoyou Jiang, Li Zhao, Rui Sun, Ruohan Sun, Zhongjian Li, Jing Li, Daxin Jiang, Zuo Bai, Cheng Hua
arXiv:2608. 14014v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Two old market sayings hold that news is already priced in by the time it is published, and that the rumor is bought while the news is sold.
By Alireza Kargarzadeh, Nariman Khaledian, Navid Parvini, Sid Ghatak, Arman Khaledian