The paper audits the impact of temporal leakage on financial-news direction prediction across 49,799 articles and 16 feature-model combinations, including TF‑IDF, MiniLM, FinBERT, and fine‑tuned RoBERTa‑large / DeBERTa‑v3‑large, as well as zero/few‑shot and LoRA probes of Llama‑3 and Qwen2.5. Random train‑test splits inflate MCC scores by 1.1× to 6.5×, with larger models and richer features showing greater gains, while end‑to‑end FinBERT fine‑tuning actually increases the gap. Only the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) category shows a positive locked‑test signal under near‑temporal chronological evaluation, with the signal localized to 2024‑2025 European‑tilted M&A semantics and not transferring to a 2009‑2020 U.S. corpus.
By Chenhao Xue, Raslen Guesmi, Siwei Feng, Yucheng Gong, Jacob Xavier Sundram, Jordan Pang, Lan Wang, Julian Kaljuvee
The study investigates which inputs influence a language model’s financial forecasts by creating synthetic earnings announcements that independently reverse 20‑day momentum, commentary tone, and EPS surprise. Six instruction/chat checkpoint conversions from four model families (0.49‑7.61 B parameters) were tested with 2,016 prompts each, covering 384 primary scenarios. Results show that the contrast in primary EPS ranges from –0.19 to 86.80 percentage points, with signed tone and momentum contrasts often exceeding EPS effects; numerical diagnostic accuracy varied from 51.0 % to 95.8 %. The experiment measures observable input reliance and numerical recognition but does not establish internal reasoning mechanisms or return predictability.
By Alina Khaybullina
The paper introduces DisclosureBeta, a theory that treats large language models (LLMs) as noisy measurement channels for a firm’s latent risk characteristics, integrating this noise into the asset‑pricing error budget. It establishes identification and consistency of regime‑conditional beta loadings within a piecewise‑stationary Fama‑French five‑factor framework, provides matching lower bounds, and proposes an adaptive estimator that blends text‑based and rolling‑window approaches, improving precision when price histories are short or regime‑breaks occur. The work also outlines a pre‑registered empirical evaluation on firms with thin price histories.
By Ping Kuen Wong
arXiv:2610.29578v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Using a near-census of 802,863 resolved markets listed on Polymarket between January 2023 and May 2026, and only information available at listing (th...
By Ahmed Mahrous, Roberto Di Pietro
arXiv:2609. 20193v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Retrieval plug-ins supply a deep forecaster with information its lookback window cannot carry.
By Mert Onur Cakiroglu, Elham Buxton, Mehmet Dalkilic, Hasan Kurban
arXiv:2608. 10433v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Temporal reports are increasingly emitted alongside numerical forecasts and are often interpreted as statements about the computation producing those forecasts.
By Qipeng Qian, Yuntao Qian