arXiv AI By Ken Chen, Wei Wang, Sachith Seneviratne, Hansani Weeratunge, Saman Halgamuge

When Agents Disagree: Bayesian Backward Reasoning as a Label-Free Anchor for Multi-Agent Collective Decision-Making

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The paper introduces Bayesian backward reasoning as a label‑free anchor for multi‑agent collective decision‑making. By constructing reverse posteriors from explicit likelihoods, the authors obtain differently factorized approximations of the underlying posterior, reducing shared errors among agents. Using Jensen‑Shannon divergence to rank agents, they propose three aggregation strategies—hard selection (MinJS), soft reweighting (FwdJS), and log‑linear fusion (LogLin)—which consistently outperform baseline methods on the DDXPlus benchmark across five LLM backbones, especially when agents disagree.

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