arXiv:2610.20104v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Autoregressive transformers trained on limit order book (LOB) message streams are increasingly proposed as foundation models for market microstructure....
By Fernando Acero
arXiv:2610.27100v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Realistic market impact is essential for generative limit order book (LOB) models to serve as world models for trading agents. If a simulator mispric...
By George Nigmatulin, Valentin Mohl, Sascha Frey, Kang Li, Aramis Marti-Shahandeh, Mihai Cucuringu, Anisoara Calinescu, Jakob Foerster, Stefan Zohren
arXiv:2608. 19227v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Market microstructure simulation aims to model how liquidity, prices, and order flow evolve in electronic financial markets.
By Yanzhi Zhang, Yu Ma, Yilin Cheng, Jian Li, Yitong Duan
UQ-LOB is a lightweight, encoder‑agnostic module that adds uncertainty quantification to any pretrained limit order book (LOB) encoder. It offers two variants: UQ‑regression, which outputs a calibrated Gaussian over future tick displacement, and UQ‑classification, which outputs a categorical distribution over down/up/stationary. On 5.2 billion LOB events across seven cryptocurrency assets, UQ‑regression achieves near‑nominal 68 % interval coverage, and selecting the top 10 % most confident predictions boosts directional macro F1 by 0.11–0.15 for regression and 0.05–0.11 for classification, reaching F1 scores of 0.88 (down) and 0.83 (up) at a 5‑second horizon.
By Derrick Gilchrist Edward Manoharan, Eljas Linna, Kestutis Baltakys, Hao Dong, Juho Kanniainen
A large language model trained on synthetic limit order book data can generate valid sequences of LOB events with near‑perfect accuracy, yet its internal world model does not capture the true state of the book. This shortfall results in biased estimates and misleading predictability when the model is used to forecast future LOB events. The study introduces new tests for an LLM’s world model, extending previous deterministic analyses to the stochastic dynamics inherent in limit order books.
By Junxiao Chen, Paul Glasserman
arXiv:2609.06085v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Understanding the joint dynamics of prices and trades is central to market microstructure, where returns and order flow interact through nonlinear an...
By Manuel Naviglio, Fabrizio Lillo