The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Machine Learning.
The paper introduces a Causal Market Simulator using a continuous‑time causal prior‑data fitted network (PFN) to estimate market impact, addressing bias from informational flow that traditional models overlook. On a synthetic market prior with adjustable confounding, the PFN matches an unbiased oracle while a naive estimator overestimates by up to 68%. In zero‑shot tests on real limit‑order books and equity data, the model’s intervention responses align with ground‑truth scales and improve correlation with measured impact when a recurrent state‑space variant is used.
arXiv:2608. 13096v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Limit order book (LOB) simulators are most useful to practitioners when they combine realistic market dynamics, computationally efficient sampling, controllable scenario generation, and the ability to generalize beyond the instruments seen during training---properties that existing agent-based and deep generative simulators provide only partially.
arXiv:2606. 28670v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce MACROCAST, a lightweight Time Series Foundation Model (TSFM) for real-time macroeconomic forecasting.
On-Policy Residual Learning for Diffusion Language Models (ORL) introduces a framework that learns residual context directly from model-generated trajectories, using an entropy-contraction objective to sharpen predictions. The approach co-designs algorithmic and system components—such as asynchronous residual capture, block-diffusion attention, and packed compute-balanced training—to enable practical scaling. Experiments on a 4B DLM converted from Qwen3-4B show up to 6.2× faster tokens per forward and 6.9× higher end-to-end throughput, while also improving speed-quality trade-offs over autoregressive models and transferring effectively to other DLMs like LLaDA-2.1-mini and DiffusionGemma.
The paper explores a new lossy strategy for speculative decoding called verifier skipping, which allows certain draft prefixes to be committed without invoking the verifier. It investigates which confidence signals—raw token confidence, learned marginal survival, or learned conditional survival—best schedule these skips, finding that raw confidence often performs best despite higher positionwise AUROC for learned signals. Experiments on HumanEval with DiffuCoder-7B-Instruct and Qwen3-32B show that all three signals can reduce verifier calls by 9.6% to 13.5% while maintaining the same pass@1 as Strict SDD.
arXiv:2607. 21535v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Speculative decoding accelerates autoregressive generation by having a cheap draft propose tokens that a target verifies in parallel.