arXiv:2608. 17079v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals but relies on exchangeability, an assumption often violated in economic forecasting because of covariate shift, concept drift, local heterogeneity and latent regimes.
By Bogdan Oancea
arXiv:2606. 31915v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While conformal prediction provides a general framework for uncertainty quantification in predictive inference, its application is often limited by computational cost.
By Jiachen Cong, Jingbo Liu
arXiv:2606. 16356v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study uncertainty quantification for aggregated forecasting tasks such as annual totals and year-over-year growth rates.
By Andro Sabashvili
arXiv:2608. 10553v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions.
By Sangjin Jin, Kangmin Kim, Junhyeong Lee, Yongjae Lee
Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions. Recent time series CP methods improve local calibration using recent, weighted, or localized residuals.
arXiv:2601. 21455v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction(CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length.
By Yizhou Min, Yizhou Lu, Lanqi Li, Zhen Zhang, Jiaye Teng