Tracing the Evidence Behind Zero-Shot Time-Series Forecasting: A Source-First Taxonomy and Audit Framework

The paper argues that zero‑shot time‑series forecasting should be treated as an evidence‑access claim rather than merely a no‑parameter‑update condition. It introduces a source‑first taxonomy that distinguishes three evidence sources—frozen LLM prior reuse, parametric time‑series pretraining, and retrieval‑augmented external memory—from the architectures that implement them. The authors further outline four audit questions—task interface, forecast object and scoring, prediction‑time context, and resource budget—to make zero‑shot leaderboards transparent and comparable.

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• llms
• rag
• benchmarks