arXiv Machine Learning By Stefan P. Schmid, Tobias Setzer, Maximilian Scheurer

Towards Out-of-Distribution Uncertainty Quantification for Machine-Learned Interatomic Potentials via Pre-Training

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The paper proposes pre-training uncertainty estimators on large, diverse materials science datasets to improve uncertainty quantification (UQ) for machine‑learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs). By evaluating these pre‑trained models on both in‑distribution and out‑of‑domain adsorption‑energy predictions, the authors demonstrate that zero‑shot UQ is viable and that fine‑tuning yields strong correlations between predicted uncertainty and actual prediction error, even on challenging datasets. This approach aims to provide foundational UQ models that enable broader, more reliable deployment of MLIPs across chemical space.

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