arXiv:2606. 20544v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Calibration aligns a model's predictive uncertainty with the frequencies of its empirical outcomes and is important for understanding and trusting reported probabilities.
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arXiv:2609.09241v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures have emerged as a powerful paradigm for scaling model capacity while preserving efficient inference in large f...
The paper presents a statistical framework for Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models, treating them as localized aggregation systems. It derives oracle risk bounds that separate approximation, expert‑learning, and router‑estimation errors for both dense and sparse routing with evolving experts. The authors also analyze how sparse Top‑K routing balances computational cost with performance, interpret gating geometrically, and explain how shared experts can capture common predictive structure while allowing routed experts to focus on local residuals.
The paper introduces Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades (CAUC), a post‑hoc framework that calibrates each model’s confidence independently and uses these calibrated scores to decide when to accept an early prediction, invoke a stronger model, or combine outputs. CAUC establishes a common reliability scale across heterogeneous models, decoupling deployment policies from specific model pools or budgets. Experiments on six language benchmarks show a 1.9% relative accuracy gain over strong‑model‑only inference while cutting strong‑model calls by about 47%, and on image classification it maintains or improves performance while reducing GFLOPs by up to 57%.
arXiv:2601. 07965v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: When a model knows when it does not know, many possibilities emerge.
arXiv:2602. 19938v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) architectures are increasingly used to scale large language models efficiently, delivering strong accuracy under fixed compute budgets.
arXiv:2604.23036v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Despite MoE models leading many benchmarks, supervised fine-tuning (SFT) for the MoE architectures remains difficult because its router layer...