arXiv:2607. 07423v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We prove that, in the realizable PAC setting, the sample complexity of exact-trace learning for full autoregressive Chain-of-Thought traces is upper bounded by the standard multiclass rate of the local next-token class, where this rate is governed by the Daniely--Shalev-Shwartz dimension.
By Zhiyuan Li
arXiv:2608. 06337v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A monotone adversary observes an i.
By Anay Mehrotra
arXiv:2603. 06957v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study post-training linear autoregressive models with outcome and process rewards.
By Alireza Mousavi-Hosseini, Murat A. Erdogdu
The paper introduces a leave‑a‑window‑out estimator for next‑token functionals, such as the surprise probability and test error, in sequences of random variables. By deleting a window of length τ after each index, the estimator generalizes leave‑one‑out and achieves parametric error decay for stationary β‑mixing processes that admit a Marton coupling. The authors provide both upper bounds and a minimax lower bound for the surprise probability, and demonstrate through simulations that their method outperforms traditional baselines on Markov, moving‑average, and autoregressive processes.
By Milind Nakul, Vidya Muthukumar, Ashwin Pananjady
Suppose we observe the first $n$ points of a sequence of random variables having length $n+1$, and wish to estimate a functional of the unobserved final point and the empirical measure of the $n$ obse...
The paper presents empirical scaling laws for autoregressive language models, linking prediction loss to model size, data size, and compute, and investigates their theoretical basis using a teacher–student linear RNN framework. In this tractable setting, a stable latent linear RNN generates trajectories while a sketched linear recurrent student is trained via full‑batch WSD gradient descent on next‑token prediction. The study derives explicit approximation, optimization, and statistical scaling laws that depend on the sketch dimension, number of trajectories, and trajectory length, revealing how different power‑law exponents for innovation and initialization covariances affect the rates and crossovers between regimes.
By Ziyan Chen, Zhongzhu Zhou, Peilin Liu, Ding-Xuan Zhou