arXiv AI
3d ago

An Incremental Knowledge-Graph Learner Digital Twin for Evidence-Grounded Early Warning

The paper presents an incremental Learner Digital Twin that uses a lightweight knowledge graph to provide evidence‑grounded early warning in learning analytics. The twin is updated at temporal checkpoints by replaying learning traces and assessment records, enabling both feature extraction and explanation grounding. Evaluated on a public benchmark, the graph‑mediated approach preserves predictive performance while generating alerts that link risk decisions to specific evidence items and raw records.

By Ngoc Luyen Le, Marie-H\'el\`ene Abel, Bertrand Laforge
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 23

Event-Based Early Warning of Vineyard Disease Risk from Environmental Time Series

The paper proposes an event-based approach to predict transitions into vineyard disease‑risk periods within a 3–7 day window, rather than daily disease status. It defines events only after a minimum disease‑free gap to reduce label fragmentation and uses multi‑year agro‑meteorological data to capture humidity, rainfall, temperature, and seasonal patterns. Experiments with XGBoost, LSTM, and TCN models show that this formulation improves short‑horizon warning, highlighting trade‑offs among recall, lead time, and false alerts.

By Ivica Dimitrovski, Ivan Kitanovski, Danco Davcev, Slobodan Kalajdziski, Kosta Mitreski