Sparse Incident-Cluster Learning for 12-hour Port Flood Pre-warning in Digital-Twin Analytics
Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Machine Learning.
The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Machine Learning.
The paper presents an incremental Learner Digital Twin that uses a lightweight knowledge graph to provide evidence‑grounded early warning in learning analytics. The twin is updated at temporal checkpoints by replaying learning traces and assessment records, enabling both feature extraction and explanation grounding. Evaluated on a public benchmark, the graph‑mediated approach preserves predictive performance while generating alerts that link risk decisions to specific evidence items and raw records.
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The paper proposes an event-based approach to predict transitions into vineyard disease‑risk periods within a 3–7 day window, rather than daily disease status. It defines events only after a minimum disease‑free gap to reduce label fragmentation and uses multi‑year agro‑meteorological data to capture humidity, rainfall, temperature, and seasonal patterns. Experiments with XGBoost, LSTM, and TCN models show that this formulation improves short‑horizon warning, highlighting trade‑offs among recall, lead time, and false alerts.
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