arXiv Machine Learning By Kanawut Suwandee, Suwichaya Suwanwimolkul

Single-stage joint diffusion of sky images and clear-sky index for ultra-short-term irradiance forecasting: what the frame-to-irradiance stage discards

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The paper introduces a single-stage diffusion model that jointly denoises future sky images and clear-sky index sequences, eliminating the need for a separate regression stage. Trained solely on sky images and deterministic covariates, the model achieves a pooled RMSE of 104.1 W m⁻² and a CRPS skill of +0.34 on 2023 SIRTA data, outperforming twelve baseline configurations and maintaining performance when retrained on earlier years. Compared to a separate regressor applied to the model’s generated frames, the joint training recovers roughly 46 W m⁻² of accuracy, while a deterministic network that also uses measured irradiance attains a slightly lower RMSE of 97.6 W m⁻² but lower CRPS skill.

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