arXiv Machine Learning By Yuhang Qiu, Haihan Zhu, Koteeswaran Seerangan, Longsheng Zhu, Xiong Wang, Yijun Lu, Zheng Lin, Fangmin Ren, Jialiang Xie

SeaCausal-FL: Federated Fuzzy Causal Learning for Maritime IoT Fault Diagnosis and Counterfactual Reasoning

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Machine Learning.

arXiv AI
Sep 4

Symmetries and Causality: Causal Effect Identification Beyond IID Data

The paper introduces a formal framework that uses symmetries in data to keep causal mechanisms invariant, providing a simple and general mathematical language for causal reasoning. It outlines how to describe models and queries, and presents strategies for rigorously identifying causal effects from data within this framework. The approach reproduces known results for IID data and extends causal analysis to non‑IID settings, complex queries beyond do‑ or soft‑interventions, and incorporates missing data, transfer, and robustness considerations.

By Martin Rabel, Jakob Runge
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 17

F-DACE: Fuzzy Disagreement-Aware Causal Evidence Fusion for Abstention-Safe Conversational Retail Decision Support

F-DACE is a decision layer for causal machine‑learning‑based decision‑support systems that fuses multiple causal estimators using fuzzy memberships for precision, overlap, stability, and agreement, and abstains when diagnostics fail or evidence is weak. In simulations it made decisions in 67.2 % of runs while limiting false recommendations to 17.2 %, outperforming individual estimators. In a Walmart retail panel application, F‑DACE abstained on all five markdown indicators and, when integrated with a LangGraph conversational agent, achieved perfect tool‑routing accuracy and high groundedness on live queries.

By Sourish Dey
arXiv AI
Oct 26

Learning to Predict, Discover, and Reason in High-Cardinality Event Sequences

The article discusses a new approach to diagnosing vehicle faults by treating diagnostic trouble codes (DTCs) as a high‑cardinality language. It proposes Transformer‑based models for predicting event sequences, scalable causal discovery frameworks, and a multi‑agent system that automatically generates Boolean error‑pattern rules. These methods aim to replace manual, error‑prone grouping of DTCs with automated, scalable fault diagnostics.

By Hugo Math
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 23

PriMa-Causa: Causal Prescriptive Maintenance

PriMa-Causa is a new framework for causal prescriptive maintenance that ranks maintenance actions by their estimated interventional effect. It combines a causal reasoning layer, a parametric simulator that generates interventional ground truth, and a graph-conditioned tabular causal foundation model trained once on synthetic production‑line data. The approach achieves lower prescription error than associational baselines, especially under weak overlap and sparse context, and shows further improvement when a partially disclosed causal graph is used.

By Felix Saretzky
arXiv AI
Jun 24

A Survey on Federated Causal Discovery and Inference

arXiv:2606. 23741v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal reasoning, which encompasses the discovery of causal structures and the inference of causal effects, is fundamental to data-driven decision making.

By Xianjie Guo, Yuwei Wang, Guodu Xiang, Xiaoli Tang, Kui Yu, Han Yu, Qiang Yang
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 28

A Hybrid Framework for Explainable Aviation Risk: Causal Chain Extraction from Safety Reports with Physics-Based Failure Quantification and Interventional Analysis

The paper introduces a hybrid framework that combines text analysis of aviation accident reports with physics-based models to extract and quantify causal chains of failure. Using a large language model, the authors build a causation knowledge graph from 56,202 reports and achieve 90.8% recovery of investigator-flagged causes on a 2,000-report test set. The framework calibrates occurrence models for physical factors and employs a leaky noisy-OR to estimate failure mode probabilities, demonstrating interpretability gains and modest predictive improvements for specific scenarios such as carburetor icing.

By Yutian Pang, Yifang Tian, Jiacheng Xie, Xinyu Zhao, Jueming Hu, John-Paul Clarke, Hans-Arno Jacobsen