arXiv Computation and Language By Yaokun Liu, Yifan Liu, Daniel Yue Zhang, Ruichen Yao, Zelin Li, Dong Wang

PropUQ-MAS: Propagation-Aware Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Multi-Agent Systems

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PropUQ-MAS is a framework for uncertainty quantification in large language model (LLM) multi‑agent systems that models the system as a communication‑structured graph. It estimates the reliability of each step by combining local uncertainty with uncertainty inherited from upstream messages, addressing the risk of error propagation in inter‑agent communication. Experiments show consistent improvements in UQ metrics, with average gains of +6.10% in AUROC and +47.58% in PRR.

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arXiv AI
Aug 18

From Sequence to Structure: Relational Uncertainty Propagation for LLM Agents

The paper introduces RUPA, a trajectory‑level uncertainty quantification framework for large language model agents. RUPA models an agent’s execution as a directed graph of reasoning states, tool interactions, and environment feedback, then propagates uncertainty across this graph to capture long‑range dependencies. Experiments on benchmarks such as τ‑2, Terminal‑Bench‑2, and GAIA show that RUPA outperforms existing methods, enabling earlier failure detection and more reliable agent execution.

By Zhengzhao Ma. Boxi Cao, Yaojie Lu, Hongyu Lin, Xianpei Han, Le Sun