More Agents, More Reliable? System-Level Reliability of Multi-Agent LLMs under Operational-Profile Uncertainty
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UMAS is a parameter‑free, cost‑neutral framework for system‑level uncertainty quantification in multi‑agent large language model systems. It estimates the credibility of inter‑agent influence using each generation’s intrinsic confidence, modulates uncertainty updates at each node, and aggregates these into a system‑level estimate. Evaluations on Debate and DyLAN show UMAS outperforms state‑of‑the‑art baselines by an average of 10.54 AUROC points and improves hallucination detection and answer selection, boosting MAS accuracy by up to 12.6 points on specific tasks.
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