arXiv:2608.30446v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Small-cap-inclusive equity universes contain recently listed and intermittently traded securities, so enforcing a common look-back discards a substan...
By Christian Bongiorno, Lorenzo Villassero
The paper examines whether benign overfitting—where highly overparameterized models still predict well—occurs in equity return prediction. It finds a double‑descent risk curve for ridgeless models and shows that while ridge regularization slightly improves performance, the advantage vanishes at high parameter‑to‑observation ratios. Ultimately, both models fail to beat a simple historical average, indicating that standard equity predictors lack genuine forecasting power even with flexible machine learning methods.
By Hui Guo, Jiawei Huang, Runze Li, Yan Yu
arXiv:2602. 03395v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While deep learning has revolutionized financial forecasting through sophisticated architectures, the design of the supervision signal itself is rarely scrutinized.
By Chen-Hui Song, Shuoling Liu, Liyuan Chen
arXiv:2606. 09104v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) frameworks for portfolio optimization have shown promise for their ability to learn allocation rules dynamically from market data.
By Daniil Mikriukov (University of Liverpool, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University), Ruoyu Sun (Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University), Angelos Stefanidis (Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University), Jionglong Su (Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University), Zhengyong Jiang (Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University)
arXiv:2606. 07382v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We recast classical shrinkage of high-dimensional covariance estimators as empirical risk minimization over a parametric stochastic interpolant between a source and a target distribution.
By Mathieu Chalvidal, Florentin Coeurdoux, Eric Vanden-Eijnden
arXiv:2411. 17136v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Realised volatility has become increasingly prominent in volatility forecasting due to its ability to capture intraday price fluctuations.
By Qianli Zhao, Chao Wang, Richard Gerlach, Giuseppe Storti, Lingxiang Zhang