arXiv:2608. 01599v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Volatility forecasts are commonly evaluated with aggregate accuracy metrics such as RMSE and MAE, but these metrics can hide conditional failures that matter for risk management.
By Arthur Chagas, Pedro Bento, Yan Aquino, Arthur Buzelin, Wagner Meira Jr., Cristiano Arbex Valle
arXiv:2606. 02117v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probabilistic time series forecasting has attracted increasing attention in financial applications due to the need to quantify risk and uncertainty in future observations.
By Tingting Wang, Yunyi Zhang, Benyou Wang
Probabilistic time series forecasting has attracted increasing attention in financial applications due to the need to quantify risk and uncertainty in future observations. We propose ProbRes, a post-hoc probabilistic calibration method that explicitly learns and incorporates volatility dynamics into probabilistic forecasting, enabling effective handling of heteroskedastic data.
arXiv:2609.37715v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Time-series foundation models are increasingly adapted to new domains through fine-tuning on target data, under the implicit assumption that more targe...
By Manh Nguyen, Minh Hoang Nguyen, Huu Hiep Nguyen, Van Dai Do, Hung Le
arXiv:2606. 03184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps.
By Jiaze Sun, Kelvin J. L. Koa, Ruiyang Ni, Yize Liu, Haonan Chen, Ke-Wei Huang
arXiv:2606. 04576v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Learning Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) is important for managing financial risks effectively.
By Yichi Zhang, Ke Zhu, Zhoufan Zhu