arXiv:2604. 00915v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Estimation of heterogeneous long-term treatment effects (HLTEs) is relevant for personalized decision-making in marketing, economics, and medicine, where short-term observational datasets are often combined with long-term observational datasets.
By Haorui Ma, Dennis Frauen, Valentyn Melnychuk, Stefan Feuerriegel
The paper introduces the transport Neural Tangent Kernel (tNTK) to enable active learning for conditional generative models that produce distributional outputs. By decomposing the Wasserstein test risk into mean and shape components, the authors show that mean‑based active learning misses distributional shape, and propose tNTK as a tractable kernel that captures sensitivity of the predicted distribution to model parameters. Using tNTK as a Gaussian process covariance, they greedily select inputs that minimize posterior variance, and demonstrate that this distribution‑aware strategy outperforms mean‑based NTK baselines across several generative model types and datasets.
By Jayoung Ryu, Kyunghyun Cho, Romain Lopez
ProximalFM is a transformer‑based model that uses prior‑data fitted networks (PFNs) to perform Bayesian proximal causal inference under hidden confounding. By training on synthetic data generated from structural causal models with oracle counterfactuals, it amortizes the Bayesian operator inversion into a single forward pass, producing posterior estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). The approach consistently outperforms prior methods across various proximal regimes, especially when latent confounding is strong and proxy variables are weakly informative, and it requires no dataset‑specific tuning.
By Christophe Muller, Ayub Kharel, Alex Luedtke, Chan Park, Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen, Juan L. Gamella, Rahul Krishnan, Ricardo Silva, Jakob Zeitler
arXiv:2606. 31184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Adaptive experiments for average treatment effects (ATE) require randomized allocations balancing valid inference with statistical efficiency.
By Jiachun Li, David Simchi-Levi
arXiv:2609.06294v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) enables efficient targeting of interventions, but many applications have limited experimental s...
By Maitreyi Swaroop, Shikha Bhat, Samantha Rodriguez, Tamar Krishnamurti, Bryan Wilder
arXiv:2601. 08379v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Pre-trained diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative priors for both unconditional and conditional sample generation, yet their outputs often deviate from the characteristics of user-specific target data.
By Matina Mahdizadeh Sani, Nima Jamali, Mohammad Jalali, Farzan Farnia