Observable Neural ODEs for Identifiable Causal Forecasting in Continuous Time
Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Machine Learning.
The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Machine Learning.
arXiv:2606. 05797v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Longitudinal treatment decisions require predicting potential outcomes under future treatment sequences in the presence of time-varying confounding, heterogeneous patient dynamics, and limited domain-specific data.
Many clinical prediction models treat post-intervention outcomes as a one-step mapping from baseline measurements to a future endpoint. However, recovery after a procedure often unfolds as an irregular trajectory: clinical observations, medication changes, repeat interventions, and physiological measurements are recorded asynchronously and can change risk assessment over time.
Structural causal models are the standard language for reasoning about interventions and counterfactuals, but they describe static variables, typically measured once, and usually forbid cyclic dependencies. Many systems we care about, such as patients, climates, and economies, instead evolve continuously in time, are observed at irregular time points, and contain feedback loops.
arXiv:2512. 08029v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Clinical decision-making in oncology requires predicting dynamic disease evolution, a task current static AI predictors cannot perform.
arXiv:2611.08077v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a doubly-robust method to estimate the causal effects of multi-valued treatment regimes on patient outcomes. A multi-valued treatment regi...
arXiv:2609.36144v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Electronic health records provide irregular observations of latent patient states that evolve continuously over time. Recent autoregressive models cond...