arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 3

When Persona Attributes Improve Population Alignment in Large Language Models

The paper investigates how persona prompting—using short textual descriptions of individuals—to align large language models (LLMs) with human survey responses. It examines the impact of selecting different persona attributes and finds that not all attribute combinations improve performance, suggesting that the variation in human responses to survey questions may explain mixed results. The study evaluates multiple attribute selection methods across four social surveys, two countries, six LLMs, and twenty prediction tasks, offering guidance on when persona prompting is beneficial and which attribute choices are most effective.

By Leon Fr\"ohling, Jens Rupprecht, Markus Strohmaier, Claudia Wagner
arXiv AI
Oct 2

Certainty Is Not Just Correctness: Rethinking Token-Level Certainty in LLM Reasoning

The paper investigates token‑level certainty as a proxy for correctness in large language models. It finds that certainty better predicts whether a model will answer a question correctly than it does whether a specific response is correct, and that certainty varies by token type and position. The authors show that using certainty early in generation to allocate responses and later to weight votes improves accuracy while dramatically cutting token cost.

By Yunfan Zhou, Ye Zhu, Zhihai Wang, Jianguo Yao, Haibing Guan, Xijun Li
arXiv Computation and Language
3d ago

Speak vs. Know: Balancing Behavior and Knowledge Distributions of Large Language Models

The paper investigates the mismatch between large language models’ verbalized (knowledge) distributions and their actual output (behavior) distributions when predicting group opinions. It shows that for 37% of World Values Survey questions, the most likely answer under the verbalized distribution differs from that under the log‑probability distribution, indicating a disconnect between what the model knows and what it outputs. To reconcile this, the authors propose a learnable combination of the two distributions that preserves the knowledge shape while aligning with the behavior’s most likely answer, achieving higher behavioral consistency with only a modest increase in distance to human opinion distributions.

By Yang Liu, Masahiro Kaneko, Chenhui Chu