arXiv AI June 2, 2026 By T. Ansah-Narh, Y. Asare Afrane, J. Bremang Tandoh

Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting of Under-Five Malaria Admissions in Ghana: A Gaussian Process Regression with Holt-Winters Smoothing

arXiv:2606. 00834v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate malaria forecasting remains a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, where strong seasonality, reporting uncertainty, and non-stationary transmission dynamics reduce the reliability of conventional models.

Summary generated by The Flow from the publisher's feed. The full article lives at arXiv AI.

arXiv AI

Jun 2

Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Malaria Dynamics in Ghana via an Ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampler

arXiv:2606. 00783v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliable quantification of malaria dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa is hindered by short, noisy, and spatially heterogeneous surveillance records.

By T. Ansah-Narh, Y. Asare Afrane, J. Bremang Tandoh

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 19

Understanding Key Features of Time Series Foundation Models from Epidemic Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 19560v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Seasonal influenza infects millions of people and causes substantial morbidity and mortality in the United States each year, making accurate short-term forecasting a core public-health need.

By Alireza Jafari, Judy Fox, Geoffrey C. Fox, Madhav Marathe, Aniruddha Adiga

llms

arXiv Machine Learning

Aug 5

Cross-Country Learning for National Infectious Disease Forecasting Using European Data

arXiv:2601. 20771v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate forecasting of infectious disease incidence is critical for public health planning and timely intervention.

By Zacharias Komodromos, Kleanthis Malialis, Artemis Kontou, Panayiotis Kolios

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 30

TREA-Net: A Transferable Residual Epidemiological Adaptation Network for Dengue Incidence Forecasting

arXiv:2607. 26854v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate multi-week dengue forecasting supports timely vector-control interventions, outbreak preparedness, and healthcare resource allocation.

By Inesh Shukla, Madhurima Panja, Tanujit Chakraborty, Chittaranjan Hens

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 7

Deep Generative Spatiotemporal Engression for Probabilistic Forecasting of Epidemics

arXiv:2603. 07108v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate and reliable forecasting of epidemic incidences is critical for public health preparedness, yet it remains a challenging task due to complex nonlinear temporal dependencies and heterogeneous spatial interactions.

By Rajdeep Pathak, Tanujit Chakraborty

benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 1

How (Not) to Hybridize Neural and Mechanistic Models for Epidemiological Forecasting

arXiv:2602. 06323v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Epidemiological forecasting from surveillance data is a hard problem and hybridizing mechanistic compartmental models with neural models is a natural direction.

By Yiqi Su, Ray Lee, Jiaming Cui, Naren Ramakrishnan

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Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Malaria Dynamics in Ghana via an Ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampler

Understanding Key Features of Time Series Foundation Models from Epidemic Forecasting

Cross-Country Learning for National Infectious Disease Forecasting Using European Data

TREA-Net: A Transferable Residual Epidemiological Adaptation Network for Dengue Incidence Forecasting

Deep Generative Spatiotemporal Engression for Probabilistic Forecasting of Epidemics

How (Not) to Hybridize Neural and Mechanistic Models for Epidemiological Forecasting