arXiv Machine Learning By Daniela Sailer, Robert Klein, Claudius Steinhardt

Honesty is the Best Policy ... or is it? Demand Management for Probabilistic Service Options

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The paper proposes a framework for service providers to display probabilistic service level information at booking time, aiming to inform customers and redistribute demand. It models the challenge as a sequential decision process, introduces recursive definitions of truthful probabilities, and imposes transparency constraints to limit manipulation. Using reinforcement learning and a sampling‑based mixed‑integer program, the authors approximate truthful probabilities and optimize the communicated information, demonstrating a trade‑off between individual transparency and overall customer utility in out‑of‑home delivery scenarios.

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