arXiv AI By Misaki Matsuura, Sayantan Kumar, Ojas Kadam, Jeremy C. Weiss

Hindsight Bias in Clinical Temporal Reasoning: How Future Data Exposure Affects Large Language Model Judgment

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The paper introduces a paired benchmark to detect hindsight bias in clinical language models by comparing model responses to questions posed at a clinically relevant cutoff versus the full timeline. It uses 171 case reports (40 sepsis, 131 GLP‑1/diabetes) with both human‑annotated and LLM‑generated time‑series data, evaluating accuracy, hindsight trap rate, answer instability rate, and hindsight bias rate. Results show that exposing models to the full timeline consistently increases hindsight bias, while truncating the timeline mitigates bias without sacrificing accuracy.

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