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arXiv:2609.40064v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Purpose: This study examines whether domain-specific public mood is associated with stock-market dynamics and whether these relationships vary across c...
This paper presents an empirical comparison of lexicon-based and Large Language Model (LLM)-based sentiment analysis for extracting market-relevant signals from social media discourse in highly volatile equity markets. Using Reddit data from r/WallStreetBets and focusing on meme stocks (GME, AMC, NOK), we construct time-aligned sentiment indicators and evaluate their relationship with market returns, with particular attention to extreme positive return events in the upper tail of the return distribution.
The paper evaluates twelve financial sentiment models—including dictionary-based methods, finance-specific transformers, and open-source large language models—using linguistic and economic validity criteria. General-purpose LLMs match finance-specific transformers in classification performance but do not yield stronger economic relationships. While several models correlate with earnings surprises, none shows a significant link to next‑day stock returns, and performance is strongest for large earnings beats or misses.
The paper explores whether ChatGPT can predict stock market movements by analyzing Twitter sentiment. Using tweets about Microsoft and Google, the study finds a positive correlation between ChatGPT’s sentiment assessments and the subsequent stock performance of both companies. The results suggest that ChatGPT’s language understanding can translate social media sentiment into useful financial forecasts.
The study examines whether financial sentiment tools that are validated against human labels also reliably predict market outcomes. Using a large corpus of securities class action messages linked to abnormal stock returns, the authors compare five sentiment instruments—VADER, Loughran‑McDonald, FinBERT, Twitter‑RoBERTa, and an LLM annotator—within a single pipeline. Results show that the alignment between human agreement and sentiment scores varies with sampling strategy and time horizon: conventional sampling favors same‑day associations, while fixed‑n panels yield similar correlations for both same‑day and one‑day‑ahead predictions, yet overall predictive rankings remain weak.
arXiv:2607. 14174v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial sentiment extraction has largely relied on news text and supervised extraction against return labels alone, leaving 10-K filings -- and volatility, the target risk disclosure is arguably best suited to informing -- comparatively unexplored.