This paper presents an empirical comparison of lexicon-based and Large Language Model (LLM)-based sentiment analysis for extracting market-relevant signals from social media discourse in highly volatile equity markets. Using Reddit data from r/WallStreetBets and focusing on meme stocks (GME, AMC, NOK), we construct time-aligned sentiment indicators and evaluate their relationship with market returns, with particular attention to extreme positive return events in the upper tail of the return distribution.
The paper evaluates twelve financial sentiment models—including dictionary-based methods, finance-specific transformers, and open-source large language models—using linguistic and economic validity criteria. General-purpose LLMs match finance-specific transformers in classification performance but do not yield stronger economic relationships. While several models correlate with earnings surprises, none shows a significant link to next‑day stock returns, and performance is strongest for large earnings beats or misses.
By Arslan Bisharat, Oudom Hean
arXiv:2607. 15258v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The growing use of Bitcoin as a decentralized digital asset and investment tool has sparked strong interest in understanding its market behavior.
By Arthur G. Bubolz, Abreu Quevedo, Giancarlo Lucca, Rafael A. Berri, Eduardo Borges, Bruno L. Dalmazo
arXiv:2609.22198v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: The rapid adoption of large language models (LLMs) creates new opportunities for strategic content generation on online platforms, including potentiall...
By Valeria Lerman, Oren Rigbi, Yaniv Dover
The study examines whether financial sentiment tools that are validated against human labels also reliably predict market outcomes. Using a large corpus of securities class action messages linked to abnormal stock returns, the authors compare five sentiment instruments—VADER, Loughran‑McDonald, FinBERT, Twitter‑RoBERTa, and an LLM annotator—within a single pipeline. Results show that the alignment between human agreement and sentiment scores varies with sampling strategy and time horizon: conventional sampling favors same‑day associations, while fixed‑n panels yield similar correlations for both same‑day and one‑day‑ahead predictions, yet overall predictive rankings remain weak.
By AS Aravinthkakshan, Laven Srivastava, Harsh Nandwani
arXiv:2607. 14174v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial sentiment extraction has largely relied on news text and supervised extraction against return labels alone, leaving 10-K filings -- and volatility, the target risk disclosure is arguably best suited to informing -- comparatively unexplored.
By Sanggyu Sean Choi
Learn how finance teams use ChatGPT to streamline reporting, analyze data, improve forecasts, and communicate insights more clearly.
We will also collaborate on new AI experiences for FT readers.
arXiv:2607. 28127v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent advances in Generative AI have substantially improved financial sentiment analysis through post-trained financial large language models (LLMs).
By Giorgos Iacovides, Wuyang Zhou, Danilo Mandic
The paper presents the CDSP (context-conditional deliberation signal pipeline), which transforms investment committee meeting transcripts into structured predictive features. CDSP segments transcripts into topical chunks, assigns asset‑class context labels via a large language model, maps financial keywords to a taxonomy, and adds sentiment polarity and mention frequency features. Using these engineered features on 48 monthly meetings, the best model—combining sentence embeddings with CDSP features—achieves 73% accuracy and a 0.73 F1 score, outperforming a simple stock‑choice baseline, though the improvement is not statistically significant.
By Vivek Batra, Kristin Chen, Sanjiv Das, Samuel Judge, Harshad Khadilkar, Sukrit Mittal, Amir Nasrollahzadeh, Daniel Ostrov, Jacob Sisk
arXiv:2607. 15414v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools for processing the heterogeneous information environments of modern financial markets.
By Geofrey Ntale
OpenAI’s new Data agent in ChatGPT Work lets users connect company data, uncover insights, and build interactive dashboards using natural language. The feature enables teams to put data to work more easily and interactively with AI assistance.