arXiv Statistics ML By Franklin Fuller, Daniele Bertolini, Samantha Liang, Jason Christopher, Aaron M. Smith

FRESH: Information-Geometric Calibration of Patient-Level Models to Aggregate Evidence

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FRESH (Fusion of Recent Evidence and Subject Histories) is a method that integrates population‑level summary results—such as published clinical trials, registry summaries, prior natural‑history studies, and peer‑reviewed indirect comparisons—into predictive models trained on patient‑level data. It recalibrates a generative model trained on patient data so that its predictions match specified aggregate statistics for a target population, achieving this with minimal perturbation in an information‑geometric sense. The recalibrated model can be used directly or to update the original generative model, enabling applications like contextualizing single‑arm trials, simulating clinical‑trial designs, and conducting comparative‑effectiveness analyses of on‑market therapies.

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