arXiv Machine Learning

ABSOL: Aggregated Bayesian Subsampling Orchestrated with LLMs

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 18

Structured Inference with Large Language Gibbs

arXiv:2606. 19264v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The knowledge encoded in large language models (LLMs) can serve as a substrate for structured reasoning over variables describing a complex world, but accessing this knowledge in a probabilistically coherent manner poses a difficult inference problem.

By Sanghyeok Choi, Henry Gouk, Esmeralda S. Whitammer
arXiv AI
Sep 17

Extracting Probabilistic Knowledge from Large Language Models for Bayesian Network Parameterization

The paper investigates how Large Language Models can be used to approximate domain expert priors for Bayesian Networks by extracting probabilistic knowledge about real‑world events. Experiments on eighty publicly available networks across domains such as healthcare and finance show that LLM‑derived conditional probabilities outperform random, uniform, and next‑token baselines. The authors also demonstrate that these LLM‑generated priors can refine data‑driven distributions, especially when data is scarce, and provide the first comprehensive baseline for evaluating LLM performance in probabilistic knowledge extraction.

By Aliakbar Nafar, Kristen Brent Venable, Zijun Cui, Parisa Kordjamshidi
arXiv AI
Aug 19

Structure-Internalized Rule Language Model for Faithful Knowledge Graph Reasoning

The paper introduces the Structure-Internalized Rule Language Model (SIRLM) to improve Knowledge Graph Reasoning (KGR) by addressing the mismatch between KG structural context and Large Language Model (LLM) parametric knowledge. SIRLM centers on a Structure-Internalized Rule Generator (SIRG) that uses in-context learning, a structural relation memory, a KG tokenizer, and a neuro-symbolic reasoner to generate structural rules and provide faithful rule-execution feedback. Experiments on 36 datasets against 17 state‑of‑the‑art KGR methods show that SIRLM achieves significant performance gains.

By Xingrui Zhuo, Jiapu Wang, Manzong Huang, Gongqing Wu, Xindong Wu
arXiv AI
Oct 23

From Prompts to Posteriors: Can LLM Agents Perform Bayesian Inference in Context?

The paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) can perform principled Bayesian inference when updating beliefs in context. By creating an evaluation framework that includes qualitative epistemological tests, quantitative benchmarks, and analyses of downstream impacts, the authors find that LLMs typically violate Bayes' rule but that their performance improves dramatically when equipped with advanced reasoning and code‑execution tools, allowing them to approximate analytically intractable posteriors. The study suggests that appropriately tool‑augmented LLMs could already be leveraged to accelerate scientific discovery through complex belief updates.

By Linus Filbry, Luckeciano C. Melo, Yarin Gal