arXiv:2606. 07515v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We investigate the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of large language models through a controlled benchmarking study on discrete probability problems.
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arXiv:2501. 11790v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent studies have raised significant concerns regarding the reliability of current mathematics benchmarks, highlighting issues such as simplistic design and potential data contamination.
arXiv:2607. 27405v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Both expressions of uncertainty and inferences are ubiquitous in natural language, and valid inferences over natural-language expressions of uncertainty are necessary for not only everyday conversations but also for high-stakes domains such as medicine and law.
The paper introduces Divergent Token Confidence (DTC), a method that estimates large language model confidence by counting tokens where two models strongly disagree during decoding. DTC uses Jensen-Shannon divergence between next-token distributions along the same reasoning trajectory and shows a near-negative correlation with answer accuracy. Experiments on multiple model families and six mathematical benchmarks demonstrate that DTC improves calibration over traditional probability-based and verbalized baselines, achieving lower expected calibration errors in both white-box and black-box settings.
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed as decision assistants who must reason probabilistically from available evidence under explicit decision costs. We propose a decision-theoretic f...
arXiv:2609.15145v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs) is a critical factor for practical LLM-based applications. To investigate the current reasoning c...
As the chain-of-thought reasoning capabilities of large language models improve, evaluating and calibrating their reasoning confidence is becoming increasingly important for quantifying the uncertaint...