arXiv AI By Tobias Jan Wieczorek, Leon de Andrade, Thomas M\"ollenhoff, Marcus Rohrbach

Calibrated Sampling-Free Uncertainty Estimation in Bayesian Deep Learning

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arXiv:2606. 16214v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modern deep learning models remain notoriously prone to overconfidence, limiting their reliability in high-stakes applications.

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arXiv Computer Vision
Sep 21

Uncertainty-driven training for three-dimensional calibrated lung nodule classification

The paper introduces an uncertainty‑driven training framework for 3D CT lung nodule classification that uses validation‑based uncertainty estimates to reweight the loss, aiming to improve predictive performance and probability calibration. Two uncertainty quantification methods—Monte Carlo Dropout and Evidential Deep Learning—are evaluated across multiple backbone architectures (ResNet, DenseNet, EfficientNet, ViT, Swin) on the LIDC‑IDRI and NoduleMNIST3D datasets. The approach yields comparable classification accuracy to conventional training while substantially reducing expected calibration error, especially on convolutional backbones, and shows that simple temperature scaling can also achieve strong calibration.

By Giuseppe Tripodi, Alessandro De Rosis, Saleh Rezaeiravesh