arXiv Machine Learning By Yihao Ding, Daniel Yitian Su, Yiran Zhang, Christopher M. Gonzalez, Wei Liu

Autoregressive Drillhole Modelling Under Distribution Shift

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Autoregressive modelling, successful in language tasks, is applied to mineral‑exploration drillholes where lithology is revealed sequentially from shallow to deep. The authors introduce DrillBench, a benchmark of 49,671 Western Australian drillholes for next‑layer prediction and autoregressive stratigraphic generation across a graded transfer spectrum. Experiments show that spatial conditioning helps locally but fails under strong shift, while autoregressive models transfer more robustly; a backbone‑agnostic recipe combining large‑scale pretraining and spatial retrieval improves generalisation, especially in distant geological splits.

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