arXiv Machine Learning

Using Seismic Statistical Features and VQ-VAE to Improve Spatiotemporal Seismicity Predictability

arXiv:2606. 10069v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In this paper we build upon a previous study in which we demonstrated, using XGBoost and earthquake catalogue data from Japan and Chile, that a set of 60 seismic statistical features (SSFs) had much greater predictive value than a set of 428 generic time series features from the tsfresh package.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 10

Spatiotemporal Seismic Hazard Assessment Using VQ-VAE and Seismic Statistical Features

arXiv:2606. 10069v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper we build upon a previous study in which we demonstrated, using XGBoost and earthquake catalogue data from Japan and Chile, that a set of 60 seismic statistical features (SSFs) had much greater predictive value than a set of 428 generic time series features from the tsfresh package.

By Wei Quan, Denise Gorse
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 9

GNSS-FM: A Self-Supervised Foundation Model for Daily GNSS Displacement Time Series

arXiv:2606. 07725v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Displacement time series from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are essential for a wide range of applications, including monitoring tectonic crustal deformations and investigating the different stages of the earthquake cycle.

By Nick Teutschmann (Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry, ETH Zurich, Switzerland), Laura Crocetti (Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry, ETH Zurich, Switzerland), Fanny Lehmann (ETH AI Center, Switzerland), Leonardo Trentini (Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry, ETH Zurich, Switzerland), Benedikt Soja (Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 23

Parameter-Efficient Adaptation of Pre-Trained Vision Foundation Models for Active and Passive Seismic Data Denoising

The paper presents a framework that adapts general-purpose Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) to seismic data denoising using Parameter‑Efficient Fine‑Tuning with Low‑Rank Adaptation (LoRA). It introduces a kurtosis‑guided unsupervised test‑time adaptation module that updates only LoRA parameters to self‑calibrate for site‑specific noise without ground truth. Experiments on exploration seismic images and DAS data demonstrate that the approach matches or surpasses domain‑specific models and generalizes well to unseen cross‑site data.

By Jiahua Zhao, Umair bin Waheed, Jing Sun, Yang Cui, Nikos Savva, Eric Verschuur
arXiv Machine Learning
1d ago

Autoregressive Drillhole Modelling Under Distribution Shift

Autoregressive modelling, successful in language tasks, is applied to mineral‑exploration drillholes where lithology is revealed sequentially from shallow to deep. The authors introduce DrillBench, a benchmark of 49,671 Western Australian drillholes for next‑layer prediction and autoregressive stratigraphic generation across a graded transfer spectrum. Experiments show that spatial conditioning helps locally but fails under strong shift, while autoregressive models transfer more robustly; a backbone‑agnostic recipe combining large‑scale pretraining and spatial retrieval improves generalisation, especially in distant geological splits.

By Yihao Ding, Daniel Yitian Su, Yiran Zhang, Christopher M. Gonzalez, Wei Liu
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 19

Evaluating and improving crop-yield forecasting methods during extreme drought

The study evaluates crop‑yield forecasting methods for the 2012 Midwestern US drought, comparing non‑deep learning machine learning models with a deep learning model (VITA) using 16 meteorological predictors. It highlights challenges such as distributional dissimilarity between training and test data, spatial and temporal sparsity, and demonstrates that sample weighting and feature selection improve non‑deep learning models but not VITA. The work contrasts deep versus non‑deep learning approaches and shows how modifications can mitigate issues arising from extreme drought conditions.

By Shrey Gupta, Yi Ming, George Mohler
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 20

DELUGE: Towards Continental-Scale Daily Pluvial Flood Damage Prediction via Interpretable Conditioning on Foundation Model Embeddings

arXiv:2607. 16050v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pluvial (rainfall-driven) flooding accounts for 45% of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims in the United States and is harder to predict than its riverine and coastal counterparts, with existing approaches limited to coarse resolution, regional domains, or computationally intensive process-based models unsuitable for daily continental-scale use.

By Yuya Kawakami, Daniel Cayan, Dongyu Liu, Kwan-Liu Ma, Tom Corringham
arXiv AI
Sep 18

Physical knowledge on historical data matters more than enforcing physical constraints on the forecast

The paper introduces a Physics Informed Recurrent Neural Network (PIRNN) that simultaneously predicts target time series and unobservable intermediate physical variables, enhancing robustness and interpretability. It adapts to any physical model with multiple equations and variables, demonstrated on groundwater level predictions using the Gardenia model. Experiments on twelve real‑world datasets show PIRNN outperforming several neural network baselines and the Gardenia model, with an ablation study confirming the value of physical knowledge.

By Etienne Lehembre (CA, LIFO), Pascal Audigane (BRGM), Vincent Nguyen (LIFO), Christel Vrain (LIFO, CA), Thi-Bich-Hanh Dao (LIFO, CA)