The study audited seven public educational prediction datasets using four pre‑modeling reliability checks—baseline gap, split instability, null separation, and metadata adequacy under group‑aware holdout. Only three datasets passed all checks; the others failed either group‑aware generalization tests or lacked necessary provenance metadata. The audit revealed that cross‑group fragility, rather than weak iid performance, was the dominant failure mode, and that increasing model complexity did not resolve these structural issues.
By Yan Ma, Lizhuo Zhang
The paper introduces a framework that distinguishes two causes of saturation in clinical prediction: a learner gap, where the model fails to use available information, and a measurement‑channel ceiling, where the recorded variables limit performance. It provides theoretical characterizations, finite‑sample diagnostics, and empirical audits across three large cohorts, showing that well‑tuned models approach the frontier while deficient learners leave large gaps. A PRISMA‑guided synthesis across 104 tasks reveals consistent channel‑level patterns, suggesting that improving the learner or the measurement channel can audit and potentially lift performance.
By Sayeed Shafayet Chowdhury, Nusrat Jahan, Snehasis Mukhopadhyay, Shiaofen Fang, Vijay R. Ramakrishnan
arXiv:2609.06080v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Deeply phenotyped cohorts combine clinical, imaging, molecular, and wearable observations across timescales from seconds to years. This breadth can r...
By Gal Sapir, Alon Diament, Adva Wolf, Doron Yaya-Stupp, Dikla Gelbard Solodkin, Dana Azouri, Anat Etzion-Fuchs, Guy Lutsker, Eran Segal, Hagai Rossman
arXiv:2512. 22240v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning models are primarily judged by predictive performance, especially in applied genomics, where explanations are read as biological findings.
By Chama Bensmail
arXiv:2605. 24212v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deploying clinical prediction models across healthcare systems often fails when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment and labeled outcomes are limited in the target domain.
By Siqi Li, Chuan Hong, Ziye Tian, Benjamin Sieu-Hon Leong, Koshi Nakagawa, Hideharu Tanaka, Sang Do Shin, Khuong Quoc Dai, Do Ngoc Son, Marcus Eng Hock Ong, Nan Liu, Molei Liu
arXiv:2604. 08870v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Student dropout is a persistent concern in Learning Analytics, yet comparative studies frequently evaluate predictive models under heterogeneous protocols, prioritizing discrimination over temporal interpretability and calibration.
By Rafael da Silva, Jeff Eicher, Gregory Longo