arXiv Machine Learning By Achref Doula, Max M\"uhlh\"auser

Auditing Conformal Prediction for Language Models Under Inference-Time Model Shift

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The paper investigates how changes in inference-time settings—such as quantization and temperature—affect conformal prediction (CP) for language models. It introduces the concept of inference-time model shift, showing that such shifts break split-conformal exchangeability even when the underlying model and data distribution remain unchanged. Experiments on eight language models, four benchmarks, and twelve inference configurations reveal that matched evaluation protocols can significantly overestimate deployment-time coverage, with effects varying across models and datasets.

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