arXiv:2606. 11676v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Traditional wildfire models rely on rigid, low-dimensional parameters and static fuel maps, frequently underpredicting fire spread.
By Maksym Zhenirovskyy, Ion Matei, Rohit Vuppala, Takuya Kurihana, Hon Yung Wonga
The paper introduces an AI surrogate modelling framework that accelerates wildfire hazard mapping across Canada. By training a multi‑task deep learning model on national‑scale data, the surrogate reproduces key outputs of the computationally intensive BurnP3+ simulator—burn probability, mean fire intensity, and mean rate of spread—in seconds instead of days or weeks. The framework includes standardized training, fine‑tuning, and evaluation protocols, domain‑specific metrics, and counterfactual evaluation to ensure robust out‑of‑distribution performance, achieving up to 806‑fold CPU speed‑up and 13% memory usage compared to the original simulator.
By Hager Radi Abdelwahed, Toluwaleke Olutayo, Chirag Goel, Jana Osea, Aldo Zaimi, Tom Swystun, Sandy Erni, Francisco Emiliano Lopez Saavedra, Yan Boulanger, Ga\'etan Marceau Caron
The paper presents modular deep learning augmentations for next‑day wildfire spread prediction, including wind‑ and slope‑conditioned attention biases, physics‑feature retrieval‑augmented output correction, and fire‑conditioned dual‑stream gating. These modules are evaluated on five backbone models using the Next Day Wildfire Spread benchmark, with staged ablations, directional audits, retrieval perturbations, calibration measures, and computational comparisons. The best augmented SwinUNETR model achieves an F1 score of 0.4216 and an AUC‑PR of 0.3673, while a mixed ensemble reaches 0.4292 and 0.3790, demonstrating that predictive performance, operational trustworthiness, and computational practicality can be simultaneously improved.
By Miguel Esparza, Aydin Ayanzadeh Ahmad Mousavi, Ali Mostafavi
arXiv:2610.19191v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Wildfire decisions are made in hours, yet most learned spread models predict daily on targets including burned area. We propose FireGraphNet which form...
By Aiyshwariya Paulvannan Kanmani, Miguel Esparza, Ali Mostafavi
The study evaluates deep learning surrogates for wildfire spread prediction, training four architectures on 10,584 high‑resolution simulations from Catalonia. Results show that only surface fuel load significantly predicts burn probability, and convolutional models mainly use distance to the fire front while a transformer model emphasizes fuel and terrain. When applied to a new region without retraining, the models still perform reasonably, with only a modest accuracy drop.
By Marcin Lawenda, Aleksandra Krasicka, David Caballero, Luis Torres, {\L}ukasz Szustak
arXiv:2607. 07951v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Wildfire smoke events produce extreme PM$_{2.
By Yongcan Huang, Li Jiang, Ze Yu Liu