arXiv AI
4d ago

A Semi-Analytical Inference Framework for Structural Causal Models

The paper introduces a semi‑analytical inference framework for Structural Causal Models (SCMs) that performs message passing directly on the SCM using a common finite‑dimensional function space. It represents structural mechanisms and probability densities with tensor‑product B‑spline bases, enabling forward propagation via a numerical Law of the Unconscious Statistician and backward conditioning through spline projection. Experiments on randomly generated continuous SCMs show that the method accurately approximates Monte Carlo solutions and improves with higher basis resolution.

By Tatiana Boura, Robert Peharz
arXiv Machine Learning
6d ago

DeDiCa: A Scalable Deconfounding Discrete Causal Generative Model

DeDiCa is a scalable framework for causal inference with discrete variables and hidden confounding. It uses a tensorized parameterization of causal Bayesian networks, allowing efficient maximum‑likelihood training on observational data while exactly marginalizing over hidden confounders. The model can estimate any (proxy‑)identifiable interventional query with CPU‑efficient training and millisecond‑scale inference, matching state‑of‑the‑art neural generative models in ATE estimation while requiring less memory and time.

By Kunchangtai Liang, Adri\'an Javaloy, Antonio Vergari, Isabel Valera
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 2

CIDER-FM: Foundation Models for Causal Inference from Diverse Experimental Regimes

CIDER-FM is a causal foundation model that combines finite observational data with surrogate-interventional datasets to predict target conditional interventional distributions more accurately than using observational data alone. It employs an intervention-aware representation and hierarchical three‑axis attention to integrate information across variables, samples, and experimental regimes. Experiments on synthetic graphs, simulated data, and real‑world Causal Chambers data show that incorporating experimental context improves CID prediction performance.

By Yuche Gao, Arik Reuter, Siyuan Guo, Anish Dhir, Bernhard Sch\"olkopf, Adrian Weller
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 19

Unsupervised Causal Abstractions Discovery

arXiv:2606. 19594v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal abstractions formalize when a high-level structural causal model (SCM) captures the interventional behavior of a lower-level SCM.

By Th\'eo Saulus, Simon Lacoste-Julien, Dhanya Sridhar