WeatherNext 3 is a new AI‑driven global weather model that improves both spatial and temporal resolution by generating hourly forecasts at 0.1° resolution, matching the best physics‑based models. It incorporates low‑latency geostationary satellite data and learns to predict satellite‑derived precipitation, tropical cyclones, and station observations, enabling 2 m temperature and dewpoint predictions anywhere and anytime. By directly using raw observations instead of relying solely on analysis data, WeatherNext 3 sets a new state‑of‑the‑art for probabilistic medium‑range forecasting skill.
By Stephan Rasp, Boris Babenko, Dominic Masters, Andrew El-Kadi, Samier Merchant, Guy Shalev, Ilan Price, Fred Zyda, Remi Lam, Sasha Shysheya, Matthew Willson, Stratis Markou, Shreya Agrawal, Suhani Vora, Mohammed Alewi Hassen, Sunny Mak, Tom R. Andersson, Megan Bela, Akib Uddin, Nofar Peled Levi, Ben Gaiarin, Ferran Alet, Aaron Bell, Peter Battaglia, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez
arXiv:2609.25505v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Rapid intensification (RI) remains one of the most consequential and difficult aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. Although full-physics nu...
By Shijie Xiao, Jonathan Lin, Thomas Ehrmann, Ali Sarhadi
arXiv:2608. 09959v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: AI weather models are in the process of revolutionising weather forecasting.
By Anna Allen, Wessel P. Bruinsma, Michael Maier-Gerber, Harrison Cook, Matthew Chantry, Richard E. Turner
The study evaluates probabilistic AI weather models—GenCast, FourCastNet 3, and FGN—against the ECMWF IFS-ENS ensemble for tropical cyclone forecasting. Using new probabilistic metrics, the authors find that AI models, particularly FGN, outperform IFS-ENS in cyclone tracking, achieving better location scores for 90% of storms in 2025. The analysis also identifies intensity and spread limitations, model‑specific failure modes, and the influence of pretraining data, highlighting opportunities for targeted improvement.
By Nathan Chalumeau, Xavier Renard, Remi Meynadier, Hugo Rakotoarimanga, Marcin Detyniecki, Emmanuel de Bezenac
Tianmu-TC is a physics‑constraints generative AI framework designed for global tropical cyclone forecasting. Trained on Western North Pacific data, it produces controllable outputs with reduced uncertainty, outperforming both deterministic and ensemble meteorological AI models as well as the ECMWF NWP system across global ocean basins. The model also demonstrates strong performance in challenging scenarios such as data sparsity, anomaly tracks, rapid intensification, and weakening, while maintaining significantly lower computational cost.
By Shiqi Zhang, Pan Mu, Cheng Huang, Hanting Yan, Yuchao Zhu, Jinglin Zhang, Shengyong Chen, Shoujuan Shu, Cong Bai
arXiv:2606. 30920v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We couple Forward Flux Sampling (FFS), a non-equilibrium rare-event technique from statistical mechanics, to a neural weather emulator (SDL-WXFormer, 1{\deg} grid spacing) to estimate conditional tropical cyclogenesis rates, or how often a tropical cyclone achieves a hurricane-level central pressure, without modifying model dynamics.
By John S. Schreck, William Chapman, Charlie Becker, David John Gagne II