arXiv:2606. 30920v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We couple Forward Flux Sampling (FFS), a non-equilibrium rare-event technique from statistical mechanics, to a neural weather emulator (SDL-WXFormer, 1{\deg} grid spacing) to estimate conditional tropical cyclogenesis rates, or how often a tropical cyclone achieves a hurricane-level central pressure, without modifying model dynamics.
arXiv:2608. 09959v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: AI weather models are in the process of revolutionising weather forecasting.
arXiv:2605. 20494v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone risk is limited by the short and spatially uneven historical record, especially for rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss.
arXiv:2607. 05100v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons.
Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors accumulate over long autoregressive rollouts, systematic biases grow with lead time, and several years of data must be held out for independent verification, even though machine-learning models otherwise benefit from longer training records.
arXiv:2507. 00719v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Typically, numerical simulations of Earth systems are coarse, and Earth observations are sparse and gappy.
arXiv:2608. 10277v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present a stochastic coupled emulator of E3SM version 3, built on the SamudrACE framework, which couples an atmosphere emulator (ACE2) with a full-depth ocean emulator (Samudra).
arXiv:2605. 29976v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We evaluate the climate simulation capabilities of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen, two machine learning models originally trained for weather forecasting and evaluated up to a 10-day lead time.
arXiv:2606. 02610v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) are essential to climate science but computationally expensive, limiting ensemble size and forcing scenarios.
arXiv:2606. 31248v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Kilometer-scale convection shapes precipitation extremes, tropical organization, and cloud feedbacks, but most global atmospheric models approximate these processes at 25-100 km resolution.
Many nonlinear physical systems exhibit an initial transient phase in which perturbations grow before nonlinear interactions lead to a statistically steady state. While this saturated regime is of primary interest, direct numerical simulations must resolve the full transient dynamics before reaching it, incurring significant computational cost.
arXiv:2607. 13022v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many nonlinear physical systems exhibit an initial transient phase in which perturbations grow before nonlinear interactions lead to a statistically steady state.
arXiv:2605. 14285v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science.