arXiv:2608. 09959v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: AI weather models are in the process of revolutionising weather forecasting.
By Anna Allen, Wessel P. Bruinsma, Michael Maier-Gerber, Harrison Cook, Matthew Chantry, Richard E. Turner
arXiv:2605. 20494v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone risk is limited by the short and spatially uneven historical record, especially for rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss.
By Jennifer Nakamura, Upmanu Lall
arXiv:2607. 05100v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons.
By Jakob Schloer, Steffen Tietsche, Christopher D. Roberts, Lorenzo Zampieri, Simon Lang, Gert Mertes, Gareth Jones, Matthew Chantry, Frederic Vitart
Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors accumulate over long autoregressive rollouts, systematic biases grow with lead time, and several years of data must be held out for independent verification, even though machine-learning models otherwise benefit from longer training records.
arXiv:2507. 00719v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Typically, numerical simulations of Earth systems are coarse, and Earth observations are sparse and gappy.
By Anantha Narayanan Suresh Babu, Akhil Sadam, Pierre F. J. Lermusiaux
arXiv:2608. 10277v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present a stochastic coupled emulator of E3SM version 3, built on the SamudrACE framework, which couples an atmosphere emulator (ACE2) with a full-depth ocean emulator (Samudra).
By Elynn Wu, James P. C. Duncan, Troy Arcomano, Jeremy McGibbon, Oliver Watt-Meyer, Christopher S. Bretherton, Naser Mahfouz, Claudia Tebaldi, Luke Van Roekel, Andrew Roberts, Wuyin Lin, Finn Rebassoo, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Peter M. Caldwell