Probabilistic time series forecasting remains challenging, largely because modeling distinct trend and seasonal dynamics requires specialized approaches. Existing methods often fail to capture the unique inner properties of these components, lack interpretability, or suffer from heavy memory and runtime overhead.
arXiv:2608. 20052v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic time series forecasting remains challenging, largely because modeling distinct trend and seasonal dynamics requires specialized approaches.
arXiv:2603. 15506v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We argue that the current practice of evaluating AI/ML time-series forecasting models, predominantly on benchmarks characterized by strong, persistent periodicities and seasonalities, obscures real progress by overlooking the performance of efficient classical methods.
arXiv:2608. 20025v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic forecasting models are widely used for time series forecasting in domains such as energy systems, finance, medicine, and transportation.
arXiv:2510. 05589v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Effective time series forecasting enables various real-world applications, benefiting from the proliferation of mobile devices.
arXiv:2606. 01339v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Long-term time-series forecasting needs models that are accurate yet efficient enough for commodity hardware.
AdaRDiff is a new adaptive reversible differencing technique for time‑series forecasting that learns weighted differencing to remove trend and seasonality, stabilizes residuals for forecasting, and then reconstructs the forecast autoregressively. The method offers a closed‑form convolutional implementation that can be GPU‑parallelized, achieving up to 33.7× speedup over naive recurrence. Experiments on eight diverse benchmarks show state‑of‑the‑art accuracy and significant performance gains when integrated into various backbone models, from linear models to Transformers.
arXiv:2607. 09537v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting requires models to capture diverse, often mutually exclusive, temporal dynamics, from smooth trend continuation to nonstationary drift and strict phase-aligned recurrence.
arXiv:2508. 05287v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Existing time series foundation models (TSFMs), often based on transformer variants, lack adaptability to different sampling rates, struggle with generalization across varying context and target lengths, and are computationally inefficient.
arXiv:2607. 22299v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecasting multiple time-series with high-dimensional covariates presents a core challenge: unifying common temporal patterns while retaining meaningful series-specific information.
arXiv:2607. 28124v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As forecasts increasingly drive decisions in fields such as energy, transportation, and healthcare, understanding the historical data behind these predictions has become as crucial as the predictions themselves.
arXiv:2605. 15690v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate and efficient long-term multivariate time series forecasting requires capturing recurring temporal structure while keeping inference cheap across many variables and horizons.
arXiv:2606. 27908v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-term time series forecasting finds extensive applications in domains such as power demand, traffic flow, meteorological observation, and renewable energy dispatch.