arXiv:2608. 08078v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Interval prediction aims to achieve a target coverage level while producing intervals that are as short as possible.
arXiv:2609.24528v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Random forests (RFs) predict well but are opaque, whereas single decision trees are interpretable but unstable. Artificial representative trees (ARTs...
Random forests (RFs) predict well but are opaque, whereas single decision trees are interpretable but unstable. Artificial representative trees (ARTs) were developed as interpretable surrogate models...
arXiv:2602. 22432v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Gradient-boosted decision trees are among the strongest off-the-shelf predictors for tabular regression, but point predictions alone do not quantify uncertainty.
arXiv:2601. 21455v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction(CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length.
arXiv:2604.22391v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The Super Learner (SL) is a widely used ensemble method that combines point predictions from a library of learners based on their predictive...
arXiv:2609.25388v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A classical question in statistics is which observable quantities to condition on when drawing inferences about unobservable targets. For conformal p...
arXiv:2606. 09473v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probabilistic forecasters are increasingly learned, yet the baselines they are compared against are often weak or omitted.
The paper introduces DCRL (Divide-and-Conquer RL), a method that recursively decomposes offline goal-conditioned reinforcement learning trajectories into a balanced binary tree. By training values from the leaves up to the root, DCRL avoids noisy max-based backups and reduces bootstrap depth from linear to logarithmic, thereby limiting error accumulation. Experiments on diverse goal-reaching tasks show that DCRL outperforms prior flat offline GCRL methods, achieving a higher average score on the most challenging long-horizon OGBench tasks.
arXiv:2606. 00690v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sequential conformal prediction (CP) provides valid uncertainty quantification under the assumption of residual exchangeability.
arXiv:2608.29262v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Decision trees are attractive for tabular prediction tasks because each prediction follows an interpretable sequence of feature-threshold tests. Unde...
arXiv:2508. 13362v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) is well-suited for uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting due to its distribution-free coverage guarantees.
arXiv:2505. 08784v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: As machine learning (ML) enters high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safety.