arXiv AI

What Drives LLM Self-Reflection? A Controlled Ablation of Uncertainty Routing in Armed Conflict Forecasting

arXiv:2608. 12322v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Self-reflection is widely assumed to improve LLM reasoning, yet which component drives the gain remains poorly understood.

arXiv AI
2d ago

The Delegation Danger Band: Why Mid-Capability Sub-Agents Over-Trust Inherited Stale State

The paper investigates how inherited state affects sub-agent performance in multi-agent frameworks, comparing three inheritance policies—Reset, Selective, and Full—across a ladder of Qwen3 models. It finds that reliance on stale state decreases with model capability, but a mid-capability model (Qwen3‑1.7B) exhibits a statistically significant local minimum of net harm, defining a "danger band." Selective handoff consistently improves accuracy over Full, especially within the danger band, while a fixed-threshold router fails on other datasets.

By Jundong Hu, Shekar Ramachandran
arXiv Computation and Language
Aug 27

AgentDiff: Meaning-Bearing Rewrites Trigger Deeper Divergence than Presentation Changes in LLM Agents

The paper introduces AgentDiff, a metric that quantifies how much LLM agents’ answers differ when inputs are altered by meaning‑bearing rewrites (paraphrases, synonym substitutions) versus presentation changes (reordering, formatting, distractors). Across 68 model–benchmark–scaffold combinations involving ten LLMs and over 1,500 questions, meaning‑bearing rewrites consistently produce a roughly 20‑percentage‑point higher inconsistency rate than presentation changes, a gap that persists across severity proxies and remains significant even outside the Qwen family. Trace analysis reveals that meaning‑bearing rewrites preserve the first action but reduce thought similarity from the second step onward, extending the divergence cascade—a phenomenon termed “stealth divergence.”

By Liyun Zhang, Jiayi Guo
arXiv AI
2d ago

False Floors: LLM Safety Routing Evaluations Break Under Distribution Shift

The paper examines safety routers—systems that route user requests to different language models—and finds that their performance degrades significantly when evaluated under distribution shift. In standard benchmarks, routers appear effective because the best single model is chosen from the same evaluation data, but when the data distribution changes, the routing advantage diminishes or disappears. The study quantifies this bias across multiple safety corpora, showing that routers offer little benefit under realistic shift conditions and that recognition‑based defenses can be undermined by attackers who know the model being used.

By Amit Singh Bhatti, Vishal Vaddina
arXiv AI
Sep 10

What LLM Trading Agents Actually Do in Production: A Six-Month, Population-Scale Record from Two Fleets

The paper reports a six‑month, population‑scale measurement of autonomous language‑model trading agents operating in two production fleets: DX Terminal Pro, with 3,505 user‑funded vaults trading real ETH in Base memecoin markets, and the DXAP live alpha fleet, with 500–599 user‑created agents trading Hyperliquid perpetuals. Across roughly 7.5 million single‑model invocations and 231,638 multi‑tool turns, the study finds that operating layer design, risk sliders, and leaderboard boundaries drive behavior more than strategy text; agents are volatility‑blind in sizing, capture little upside, and show no directional edge compared to a retail benchmark. The analysis includes regression discontinuity, permutation nulls, and a 17‑rule methodology canon to validate the findings.

By T. J. Barton, Chris Constantakis, Patti Hauseman, Annie Mous, Alaska Hoffman, Brian Bergeron, Hunter Goodreau
arXiv AI
Jul 21

Fantastic Adaptive Taxonomies and How to Use Them

arXiv:2607. 16387v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: An agent system's execution traces record how it fails, and procedures that improve such a system without changing model weights (trajectory selection, prompt and workflow optimization, runtime monitoring) read these traces for feedback.

By Mert Cemri, Andrei Cojocaru, Melissa Pan, Shu Liu, Shubham Agarwal, Alexander Krentsel, Jay Tang, Kannan Ramchandran, Joseph E. Gonzalez, Matei Zaharia, Alex Dimakis, Ion Stoica