arXiv AI

WindINR: Latent-State INR for Fast Local Wind Query and Correction in Complex Terrain

WindINR is a latent‑state implicit neural representation that enables fast, continuous high‑resolution local wind queries and corrections in complex terrain using sparse observations. It decouples reusable representation learning from sample‑specific latent correction, training a privileged encoder to infer latent states from high‑resolution data and a deployable predictor to estimate initial states from inference‑time inputs. During inference, only the low‑dimensional latent state is updated via a regularized objective, yielding a 14‑fold speedup over full‑network fine‑tuning while maintaining continuous spatial queries.

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 13

Earth observation embeddings are effective sub-grid descriptors for probabilistic weather downscaling

arXiv:2608. 12271v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Global weather reanalyses and forecasts resolve the evolving atmospheric state on coarse grids, but site-specific applications require predictions at arbitrary locations where near-surface conditions also depend on unresolved terrain and land-surface properties.

By Pedro Sousa (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Will Tebbutt (Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge), Sadiq Jaffer (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Robin Young (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Anil Madhavapeddy (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Richard E. Turner (Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge)
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 16

UniWind: Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting via Physics-Informed State Routing

UniWind is a wind power forecasting framework that blends physics-informed generation priors with data-driven state-aware corrections. It constructs a site‑calibrated physical prior using a monotone warp and a shared power curve, then refines this prior with a latent state encoder and a state‑aware power corrector guided by pseudo‑labels. Experiments on 24 real‑world datasets show that UniWind achieves strong forecasting accuracy, robustness, and generalization across full‑shot, cross‑farm zero‑shot, and cross‑region zero‑shot scenarios.

By Ronghui Xu, Tongxin Wu, Guozhen Zhang, Yihan Li, Chenjuan Guo, Bin Yang, Yong Li
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 2

Efficient Adaptation of ROMs for Unsteady Flows Using Data Assimilation

The paper presents a lightweight retraining strategy for a parameterized Reduced Order Model (ROM) that achieves full‑model accuracy using only a fraction of the computational effort and sparse observations. The ROM architecture combines a Variational Autoencoder for dimensionality reduction with a transformer network that evolves latent states while accounting for the Reynolds number as an external control variable. By leveraging the probabilistic VAE, the method generates trajectory ensembles and uncertainty estimates, and adapts to out‑of‑sample parameters through sparse data assimilation with an ensemble Kalman filter, focusing retraining on the autoencoder to correct latent manifold distortions.

By Isma\"el Zighed, Andrea N\'ovoa, Luca Magri, Taraneh Sayadi
arXiv AI
Oct 2

Benchmarking Generative Models for Weather Data Assimilation on Real Station Observations

This study introduces the first controlled benchmark of generative models for weather data assimilation using real station observations from 11,849 NOAA MADIS stations across the U.S. It evaluates key design choices—diffusion vs. flow matching, pixel vs. latent-space formulations, and inference-time conditioning strategies—against a classical 3D-Var baseline. The benchmark finds that learned generative priors and full-gradient guidance improve RMSE over ERA5, while other design variations offer minimal benefit, especially under sparse observation conditions.

By Ruizhe Huang, Qidong Yang, Jonathan Giezendanner, Sherrie Wang
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 4

SimCast-S2S: A Computationally Efficient Diffusion Model for Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasting

SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion framework designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion‑based generative pipeline for uncertainty quantification, operates in a compact latent space learned by VAEs for efficient large‑ensemble generation, and employs transfer learning with LoRA to overcome limited training data. On reanalysis data, it outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with or surpasses state‑of‑the‑art operational systems such as ECMWF‑S2S.

By Hiep V. Dang, Antonios Mamalakis
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 28

SimCast-S2S: An Efficient Generative Model for Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasting via Transfer Learning from Climate Simulations

SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion model designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion pipeline to capture uncertainty, operates in a compact latent space to enable efficient large‑ensemble generation, and leverages transfer learning with low‑rank adaptation to train on limited reanalysis data after pretraining on climate simulations. The model outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with, or surpasses, operational systems such as the ECMWF‑S2S baseline without requiring extensive post‑processing.

By Hiep V. Dang, Antonios Mamalakis