arXiv Machine Learning

Beyond Expected Values: Risk-Sensitive Planning with Distributional Monte-Carlo Tree Search

arXiv:2610. 23565v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) typically stores only scalar mean estimates, which makes it poorly suited for tail-risk objectives such as conditional value-at-risk (CVaR).

arXiv AI
Sep 17

Online Robust Reinforcement Learning Through Monte-Carlo Planning

The paper introduces a robust variant of Monte Carlo Tree Search that addresses ambiguities in transition dynamics and reward distributions, bridging the gap between simulation-based planning and real-world deployment. It incorporates a robust power mean backup operator and exploration bonuses to guarantee finite-sample convergence at every node, achieving an ≠O(n−1/2) convergence rate for root value estimation comparable to standard MCTS. Empirical results demonstrate robust performance in planning tasks even under significant model mismatches.

By Tuan Dam, Kishan Panaganti, Brahim Driss, Adam Wierman
arXiv AI
Jul 23

Long-Term Sequential Decision Making under Risk

arXiv:2607. 19914v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study finite-horizon MDP planning under \emph{root-based} (resolute) risk objectives that apply a rank-dependent functional to the distribution of total returns.

By Irmaan (Mohammad), Mirzanejad, Nadjet Bourdache, Abdel-Illah Mouaddib
arXiv Computation and Language
Oct 1

OPTS-TTPO: Enhancing Finite-Sample Policy-Gradient Learning with Tree Search

arXiv:2609.40035v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The policy-gradient theorem gives the exact gradient under the current policy, but finite on-policy samples may miss rare high-return trajectories. We...

By Junyu Lu, Shichao Weng, Zhiqiang Wang, Haojie Luo, Jingfan Zhang, Yuhua Zhou, Cheng Du, Yuzhuo Zhang, Xi Li, Jinwei Du, Tiancheng Feng, Chuan Xiao, Shuyuan Zheng
arXiv Statistics ML
Oct 2

Block Optimism for Nonstationary Bandits with Latent Linear Dynamics

The paper introduces a new algorithm for a nonstationary bandit setting where actions influence both immediate rewards and the evolution of an unobserved latent linear state. By approximating the infinite‑memory reward process with a finite‑memory block‑level proxy and applying a UCB‑based block algorithm, the authors achieve a regret bound of “~O(√T)”, improving upon the previous “~O(T^{2/3})” guarantee. This represents the first such “~O(√T)” result for latent linear‑dynamics bandits with bilinear rewards and an open‑loop action‑sequence benchmark.

By Taehyun Hwang, Hyunjun Choi, Heesang Ann, Min-hwan Oh
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 12

TreeHCA: Hindsight-Guided Exploration and Credit Assignment for Multi-Turn LLM Agents

TreeHCA introduces a method that couples hindsight-guided exploration with hindsight credit assignment for multi-turn large language model agents. By using changes in reference-answer likelihood to revisit intermediate histories and sample alternative continuations, it builds a tree of reasoning and tool interactions, and applies an inverse-hindsight importance correction to propagate terminal outcomes into turn-level advantages. Experiments on seven question-answering benchmarks with three Qwen backbones show that TreeHCA outperforms all baselines in aggregate exact match.

By Debajoy Mukherjee, Jeremy Carleton, Sushil Vemuri, Srinivas Shakkottai, Dileep Kalathil
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 18

Graph-Based Stochastic Power-UCT: Monte-Carlo Graph Search with Power Mean Estimation

Graph-Based Stochastic-Power-UCT (GS-Power-UCT) is a Monte‑Carlo graph search algorithm that shares states reached at the same planning depth while keeping separate values for different depths, thereby reducing duplicate simulations in stochastic MDPs. The method guarantees that, for a fixed horizon, the root estimate converges to the finite‑horizon value at an $O(n^{-1/2})$ rate, matching tree‑based Stochastic‑Power‑UCT but with improved sample reuse. Two full‑state variants—GS‑Power‑UCT‑F and GS‑Power‑UCT‑F$^+$—extend the approach to single‑node per physical state and adaptive horizons, respectively, with the latter converging to the optimal infinite‑horizon discounted value when cross‑depth bias vanishes. Experiments on stochastic planning benchmarks demonstrate that GS‑Power‑UCT outperforms both tree‑based and other graph‑based baselines in sample efficiency.

By Tung Tran, Viet Bao Mai, Hoang Ta, Tuan Dam