arXiv Machine Learning

Descriptive versus Regulatory Uncertainty in Bounded Predictive Systems

arXiv:2605. 18909v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Any system that models the world under finite representational capacity must compress; any compression entails a prior; and the prior is the system's bias.

arXiv AI
Sep 21

Large Language Models As Shannon Lossy Compressors Not Solomonoff Induction Estimators: The Singularity Is Not Near Without Symbolic Model Synthesis

The paper argues that Large Language Models (LLMs) do not function as Solomonoff induction estimators because their training objectives—cross‑entropy, negative log‑likelihood, and next‑token prediction—optimize fit to a supplied conditional distribution rather than a program‑weighted universal mixture. It further contends that additional computation alone does not transform these models into optimal predictors without external hyper‑parameter or architectural changes. The authors suggest that neurosymbolic machine learning, exemplified by models such as Fable and Astra, represents a shift toward symbolic model synthesis, moving beyond purely statistical LLMs.

By Hector Zenil, Abicumaran Uthamacumaran, Luan Ozelim
arXiv Computation and Language
Aug 25

DynHD: Hallucination Detection for Diffusion Large Language Models via Denoising Dynamics Deviation Learning

DynHD is a method for detecting hallucinations in diffusion large language models (D‑LLMs) by focusing on token‑level uncertainty and its evolution during the denoising process. It introduces a semantic‑aware evidence construction module that filters out non‑informative structural tokens and highlights uncertainty in informative tokens, and a reference evidence generator that models the expected trajectory of uncertainty, enabling a deviation‑based detector to identify hallucinations. Experiments show DynHD outperforms existing baselines while being more efficient across various benchmarks and backbone models.

By Yanyu Qian, Yue Tan, Yixin Liu, Wang Yu, Shirui Pan
arXiv AI
Jun 2

Does Compression Preserve Uncertainty? A Unified Benchmark for Quantized and Sparse LLMs via Conformal Prediction

arXiv:2606. 01850v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Model compression techniques such as quantization and pruning are widely used to reduce the deployment cost of large language models (LLMs), with existing evaluations focusing almost exclusively on accuracy preservation.

By Yujia Tong, Yuxi Wang, Yunyang Wan, Tian Zhang, Junhao Dong, Jingling Yuan
arXiv AI
Jun 9

How Transformers Reject Wrong Answers: Rotational Dynamics of Factual Constraint Processing

arXiv:2603. 13259v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: When a decoder-only transformer is forced to process matched correct and incorrect single-token continuations of a factual query, the two pathways through hidden-state space diverge in a specific way: displacement vectors from the query-only representation maintain approximately equal magnitude but rotate apart in direction.

By Javier Mar\'in
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 19

Quantifying Aleatoric Uncertainty of In-Context Learning for Robust Measure of LLM Prediction Confidence

arXiv:2606. 19353v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In-Context Learning (ICL) allows LLMs to adapt to new tasks from a few demonstrations, but its reliability remains a concern: predictions are highly sensitive to both prompt design and the model's ability to understand the context, obscuring whether failures arise from data properties or model limitations.

By Jinseok Chung, Minkyoung Song, Hyunji Jung, Namhoon Lee