The study couples the Met Office Unified Model with distributed reinforcement learning agents, using a DDPG actor that applies bounded potential‑temperature corrections across 70 vertical levels. Training is performed on ten nudged forecasts, after which the frozen policy is evaluated in a non‑nudged forecast, demonstrating numerical stability. The learned policy reduces Z₅₀₀ MAE in four of six latitude bands—up to 45.8% in the northern tropics—and decreases MSLP error by up to 27.3% in certain bands, indicating promising bias‑correction potential.
By Pritthijit Nath, Sebastian Schemm, Peter Haynes, Emily Shuckburgh, Mark Webb
arXiv:2601. 04268v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Weather and climate models rely on parametrisations to represent unresolved sub-grid processes.
By Pritthijit Nath, Sebastian Schemm, Henry Moss, Peter Haynes, Emily Shuckburgh, Mark J. Webb
arXiv:2608. 09948v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: No single AI weather model excels at all variables, pressure levels, and lead times.
By Qiang Wu, Han Li, Jianping Huang
The paper introduces Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that learns to correct historical probabilistic forecasts, thereby reducing systematic errors in subseasonal weather predictions. Applied to leading dynamical and AI models from ECMWF, PBC doubles the AI system’s modest subseasonal skill and improves the operationally-debiased dynamical model for most pressure, temperature, and precipitation targets. In ECMWF’s 2025 real‑time forecasting competition, PBC’s global forecasts ranked first across all weather variables and lead times, outperforming multiple operational and ensemble models.
By Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Judah Cohen, Haiyu Dong, Zekun Ni, Jeremy Berman, Genevieve Flaspohler, Alex Lu, Jakob Schloer, Joshua Talib, Jonathan A. Weyn, Lester Mackey
arXiv:2604. 16238v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes.
By Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Judah Cohen, Haiyu Dong, Zekun Ni, Jeremy Berman, Genevieve Flaspohler, Alex Lu, Jakob Schloer, Joshua Talib, Jonathan A. Weyn, Lester Mackey
arXiv:2605. 08935v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Coupled spatiotemporal forecasting is important for predicting the future evolution of multiple interacting dynamical systems, such as in climate models.
By Hao Wu, Fan Xu, Yuxu Lu, Penghao Zhao, Fan Zhang, Hao Jia, Yuxuan Liang, Ruijian Gou, Qingsong Wen, Xian Wu, Xiaomeng Huang, Yuan Gao
arXiv:2504. 20238v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Atmospheric predictability research has long held that rapid error growth at small spatial scales imposes an intrinsic limit of roughly two weeks on deterministic weather forecast skill.
By P. Trent Vonich, Gregory J. Hakim
arXiv:2601.21151v3 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Machine-learning approaches to weather forecasting often employ a monolithic architecture in which distinct physical mechanisms, such as advection,...
By Carlos A. Pereira, St\'ephane Gaudreault, Valentin Dallerit, Christopher Subich, Shoyon Panday, Siqi Wei, Sasa Zhang, Siddharth Rout, Eldad Haber, Raymond J. Spiteri, David Millard
arXiv:2602. 16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast products.
By Maria Luisa Taccari, Kenza Tazi, Ois\'in M. Morrison, Andreas Grafberger, Juan Colonese, Corentin Carton de Wiart, Christel Prudhomme, Cinzia Mazzetti, Matthew Chantry, Florian Pappenberger
arXiv:2608. 09971v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Over the past few years, the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting has produced deterministic models whose medium-range skill matches or exceeds that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES).
By Minjong Cheon
arXiv:2511. 02748v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We argue that sixth-generation (6G) intelligence is not fluent token prediction but the capacity to imagine and choose -- to simulate future scenarios, weigh trade-offs, and act with calibrated uncertainty.
By Farhad Rezazadeh, Amir Ashtari Gargari, Hatim Chergui, Sandra Lagen, Merouane Debbah, Houbing Song, Lingjia Liu
arXiv:2608.30067v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: How do LLM agents come to both understand environments they act in and master tasks set within them? Through controlled experiments combining world-m...
By Ruize Xu, Xiao Yu, Yujin Tang, Chenming Shang, Nikhil Singh