arXiv:2603. 02204v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Selective conformal prediction can yield substantially tighter uncertainty sets when we can identify calibration examples that are exchangeable with the test example.
arXiv:2607. 03161v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In selective deployment, practitioners act only on a model-chosen subset of individuals based on predicted conditional average treatment effects, but marginal conformal guarantees need not control reliability on that selected subset.
arXiv:2606. 07399v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Generative models for counterfactual outcomes have great potential to support decision-making under complex interventions, but existing approaches are limited by unstable estimation, poor generalization across environments, and bias from nuisance model misspecification.
arXiv:2607. 21806v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predictive machine learning (ML) models are increasingly used to aid human decision-makers across various high-risk domains such as healthcare and criminal justice.
Policy learning aims to determine who should be treated based on individual characteristics. In high-stakes settings such as medicine and public policy where safety is a central concern, improving the...
arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
arXiv:2505. 17961v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Causal inference typically assumes centralized access to individual-level data.
arXiv:2609.22383v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Instrumental variable (IV) methods address treatment endogeneity, but with non-compliance and heterogeneous treatment effects a binary instrument gen...
arXiv:2501.18060v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal inference provides a rigorous statistical framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, enabling well-calibrated pr...
arXiv:2607. 05620v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In many decision-making settings, new interventions are acceptable only if they do not reduce outcomes below some established threshold.
arXiv:2606. 03332v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic models are typically trained using task-agnostic objectives like log-loss, which can lead to significant errors in downstream estimation.
The paper tackles the problem of estimating causal effects when an unobserved confounder is present. It assumes a single, possibly multi‑dimensional proxy variable for the confounder and knowledge of the mechanism that generates this proxy. Under the Single Proxy Identifiability of Causal Effects (SPICE) assumption, the authors prove that the error mechanism is complete and causal effects are identifiable, extending prior proxy‑based results to continuous, multi‑dimensional settings and more flexible functional forms. They also introduce SPICE‑Net, a neural‑network‑based framework for estimating causal effects applicable to both discrete and continuous treatments.