arXiv:2608. 15649v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The popular CART algorithm for regression trees combines a greedy splitting rule with a stopping rule, but while the splitting rule has been well studied, the statistical role of stopping rules is less well understood.
arXiv:2606. 13984v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Classification and Regression Trees (CART) constitute one of the most influential paradigms in statistical learning.
arXiv:2602. 22432v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Gradient-boosted decision trees are among the strongest off-the-shelf predictors for tabular regression, but point predictions alone do not quantify uncertainty.
arXiv:2607. 23721v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Distributional random forests replace mean-based CART splitting with criteria that compare the full conditional response distribution in candidate children.
arXiv:2606. 00690v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sequential conformal prediction (CP) provides valid uncertainty quantification under the assumption of residual exchangeability.
arXiv:2607. 28864v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Tree-based diffusion models fit flexible conditional predictive distributions for tabular regression without a neural density estimator, but they inherit their design defaults---noising path, parameterization, training distribution, features, sampler---from the neural setting.
arXiv:2606. 13984v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Decision trees are one of the fundamental tools in statistical learning due to their interpretability, flexibility, and their ability to adapt to nonlinear structures.
arXiv:2608. 08078v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Interval prediction aims to achieve a target coverage level while producing intervals that are as short as possible.
arXiv:2607. 01417v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conditional inference trees (CIT) and conditional inference forests (CIF) reduce split-selection bias by testing features before choosing split thresholds, but repeated permutation tests and threshold searches can make these methods computationally expensive.
arXiv:2606. 20859v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A fundamental assumption in statistics and machine learning is that ``the future looks like the past,'' formalized as exchangeability: the joint data distribution is order-invariant.
arXiv:2606. 19147v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: How can training data be used to compare local updates to the current model, choose an update, and retain valid bounds for the selected update's population-risk change?
arXiv:2606. 03549v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) for Random Forest faces a specific difficulty in tuning the number of trees: the predictive score typically improves monotonically with ensemble size, so standard methods such as Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) and Hyperband require a predefined search range and often drive the estimate toward its right boundary.
arXiv:2606. 18853v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A recent line of work has reframed individual decision trees as linear models on engineered features associated with their splits, opening routes for oracle inequalities and feature-importance reinterpretation, but leaving open the question of what unified geometric object a forest induces when one indexes its feature map by nodes rather than by splits.